After a week with a lot of tough favorites and few good matchups, week 6 gives us the opposite. Ten different games started the week with a point spread of 3.5 or less, so there should be many different opinions on the best choices for NFL Pick ’em pools and Confidence pools.
In weeks like these, there are usually more chances of picking value as the audience is either irrationally biased towards one side or relatively evenly spaced, although one team is better than a coin to win. To increase your chances of winning an NFL pick ’em pool, you need to be on the smarter side of those games.
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Week 6 NFL Picks Advice: Pick ‘Em Pools Tips
Note: The odds of winning and the pick’s estimated popularity data below may vary between publish time and start time. If you want the latest numbers, our product is updated several times a day.
Great favorites for a reasonable price
The choice below may not be significantly underestimated by the public, but compared to other favorites this week, it’s a relative bargain in terms of popularity. Think twice about choosing against it as there are smarter picking options on the board.
Baltimore Ravens (in Philadelphia)
The Ravens have the highest odds of winning of the week and are equal for the widest spread when they make the short trip to Philadelphia. But audiences are picking up on the anger in this game 14 percent of the time, which is twice as common as in the other bigger staggered games this week (New England, Miami and Indianapolis).
As a result, it makes sense to deploy the Ravens with more confidence this week.
2020 NFL Week 6 features several favorites that the public will pick at a lower price than their chance of winning. These types of teams are as close to no-brainer choices as you can get in NFL pick-em matches because you can take the team that is expected to win, but still blur the crowd (in relative terms) at the same time. .
Carolina Panthers (against Chicago)
Yes, yes, the Bears are now 4-1, but the Panthers have their own three-game winning streak that doesn’t seem like a fluke. They’ve had great passing grades in year one with Teddy Bridgewater at QB and Joe Brady at offensive coordinator, and they just won in Atlanta.
Carolina is the three-point favorite in this game with a 60 percent chance of winning against the Bears. However, the audience is more evenly distributed on this game, taking up the Panthers 53 percent of the time. That makes for a solid situation where you grab the field goal favorite and can distance yourself from a good chunk of your pool if the Panthers are victorious.
Arizona Cardinals (in Dallas)
It is possible that the public may not have fully absorbed Dallas QB Dak Prescott’s injury here, as the Cowboys are 56 percent popular in the beginning. But it is the 3-2 Cardinals who are now the three-point favorite with 55 percent winning odds.
This is a game to keep an eye on to see if public opinion shifts as the week goes on. Right now, Arizona is a value game this week.
Los Angeles Rams (in San Francisco)
San Francisco was just wrecked at home by Miami and has now started 2-3 despite being a firm favorite in most games and having a favorable schedule to start the year. The defense has been devastated by injuries and last week QB Jimmy Garoppolo came back from an ankle injury at half time after two bad interceptions in his first game.
We may not believe in Super Bowl curses, but the 49ers have played nowhere near their 2019 level so far and may be getting a little too much respect here.
Meanwhile, the Rams are now 4-1 and looked more like the 2018 team than the version that missed the playoffs last year. After San Francisco’s poor start, the Rams are the betting favorite in this one (with 3.5 points) with over 60 percent odds, but the crowd is more evenly divided again, with 54 percent for the Rams and 46 percent for the 49ers.
If you are going to place your bet on a decent sized underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward, if you do it right, is great, namely how much your chances of winning your pool are greater. Take a whole lot of extra risk to make a trendy, upset choice, and the joke is on you.
The choice below is certainly not suitable for all swimming pools. If you’re in a smaller pool that lasts all season, it’s probably not worth the risk. However, it should be seriously considered for week-long matches or if you only care about weekly prizes.
Houston Texans (in Tennessee)
Tennessee blew out Buffalo 42-16 on Tuesday, but the game changed after a few key plays. The teams finished with roughly equal yards and first downs, but Josh Allen threw two costly interceptions, and a late fumble at kickoff left the game out of control. Now sitting at 4-0 and with a big win, Tennessee is a very popular choice against the Texans (85 percent), even though the early line is only Tennessee with 2.5 points.
For perspective, that’s almost as many entries for Tennessee as for Baltimore, the top favorite of the week. The Titans are the second smallest favorite in Week 6.
Houston came back last week with their first win after firing head coach Bill O’Brien and replacing him with Romeo Crennel, and these teams are closer than their current records (1-4 for Houston, 4-0 for Tennessee) suggest. Houston played a difficult starting schedule, while Tennessee, before winning big against Buffalo, had narrowly won three games against teams that were 3-11 combined so far.
Given the extreme difference in popularity with the public, Houston is an attractive value opportunity for a distorted choice.
Important notes about these NFL Week 6 picks
Good NFL game predictions are only part of the story when it comes to winning a soccer pool. You also need to consider how you expect your opponents to choose each game. After all, you can only rise in your pole position if you score points that your opponents miss. So to stand out from the competition, you have to do two things:
- Always look for unpopular choices that may be worth an informed guess
- Make sure to avoid trendy, crazy choices that aren’t worth the risk.
The teams mentioned in this post offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your week 6 picks from your pool opponents by taking little or no extra risk. That’s the basic strategy for winning more pick ’em pools, and a big reason why an average of 72 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a prize in a soccer game since 2014.
Get all of our week 6 picks for your pool!
Equally important, we are not saying you should make all of the choices mentioned in this article, especially the distorted ones. The best choice for Week 6 for your NFL pool will depend on a number of strategic factors specific to your pool.
For example, if you are in a trust pool, it might be wise to increase the number of trust points you assign to a valuation like Carolina. In a pool of no-confidence, it’s more about deciding whether the risk of making one or more distorted choices is worthwhile in week 6, especially with many weeks left to play.
We’ve developed technology to collect and analyze all the data necessary to make the best conversations. Our Football Pick ’em Picks is the only product that gives you the tools and data you need to maximize your edge, and we invite you to try it for free using our free trial below.
Check out our free articles on for more information soccer pool strategy.
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