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Klopp is right – but why are Man Utd Europe’s punitive kings?

 


The Liverpool boss was technically right about the number of penalties United have won over the past two seasons, but is there a logical explanation?

While discussing Monday night’s loss to Southampton, Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp added another subplot to an already intriguing Premier League season.

“I now hear that Manchester United have received more penalties in two years than in five and a half years,” the German told reporters at St Mary’s. “I have no idea if that’s my fault or how it could happen.”

Cue a stir. Football fans love a good conspiracy theory. They always have.

VAR, of course, was meant to level the playing field, remove any doubts about referee decisions, but as Monday’s game underlined, it has only clouded the waters.

Allegations of cronyism continue to run rampant, and many calls remain insanely subjective, with interpretations appearing to change from game to game.

But was Klopp right? Will United receive a disproportionate amount of penalties? And if so, is there a possible explanation for this?

Just like former Liverpool boss Rafael Benitez 12 years ago, let’s only deal with facts.

Since Klopp arrived at Anfield on October 8, 2015, the Reds have received 30 penalties in the Premier League.

Leicester won the most in that period (45), with Manchester City second (43) and United third (41).

Interestingly, however, 32 of the latter’s spot kicks have come in since the start of the 2018/19 season, meaning Klopp is technically correct.

Penalties won Premier League GFX

Penalties won Europe GFX

In fact, United have won two more penalties than Liverpool over the past two and a half seasons over Klopp’s rule.

It’s also worth noting that no other side in Europe’s Big Five leagues has been more rewarded than United in all competitions since 2018-19. Only the eternal Serie A champion Juventus (37) comes close.

So what are the possible reasons for this?

Of course, it was once claimed that officials preferred the bigger and, perhaps more importantly, wealthier clubs.

The theory put forth in Italy to explain the number of big calls Juve seemed to be about to go on was ‘psychological conditioning’, the argument that referees had been unwittingly trained to side with the ‘Grand Old Lady of Italian Football’.

Of course, the ‘Calciopoli’ scandal cast that claim in a very different light, causing conspiracy theorists to revolt.

On a more general level, it was reasonably argued that the top teams would win more penalties because they dominated more games, had more ball possession, applied more attacking pressure, and spent more time in opposition areas.

However, United’s number of spot kicks over the past two and a half seasons seem to contradict that hypothesis.

Hits Premier League GFX in opposition area

Touches in Opposition Area Europe GFX

Since the start of 2018/19, United have won 48 penalties in all competitions, 11 more than Juventus in second place.

Ball-hogs Man City are 10th on that particular list, with 30 spot kicks, while the last two champions of Europe, Liverpool and Bayern Munich, score joint-24th (24) and joint-18th (25) respectively.

All three teams are known for their urgent play and winning the ball high on the field.

They have also had more contact on the ball in the opposition field over the past two and a half seasons than any other team in Europe.

But that pressure in the last third doesn’t translate into a United-esque number of penalties or even fouls.

Bayern is only the 27th most polluted team in Europe since 2018/19. Liverpool are in 46th place and City in 57th place.

The logical assumption would be that United are among those who make the most mistakes, but are only 10th in the standings. Even for errors in the last third, United is jointly fifth.

It is therefore difficult to explain exactly why they have such a healthy lead at the top of the penalty classification. They don’t spend more time in the opponent’s box than their rivals, nor do they generally win more fouls.

Fouls Won in Third Europe GFX Final

Penalty Kicks Average Europe GFX

It has been suggested that United, which broke the Premier League record for penalties won (14) in one season last season, are simply an excellent team of counter-strikes with direct forwards blessed with blistering pace, making them more prone to mistakes while punishing opponents on the break.

This is a particularly interesting aspect of the argument for two reasons.

First, United is undoubtedly an excellent counterattack, but they have scored below Paris Saint-Germain, City, Liverpool and even Wolves for ‘Fast Breaks’ in all competitions since 2018/19.

PSG, with Neymar and Kylian Mbappé, two of the fastest and toughest forwards in world football, are king of the counterattack (38), but even they have 15 fewer penalties than United in the same period.

Second, United has not had a single representative of the 20 most polluted players in Europe since August 2018, but they do win a penalty every 2.9 games, by far the best ratio in Europe.

Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial are part of the reason why. Having won 18 penalties (nine each) in the past two and a half seasons, no other club has such a prolific duo. Neither PSG, with Neymar and Mbappé (15), nor Liverpool, with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane (14).

There may be no precise reason for their success in that regard. Sure, neither United player has been accused of simulation on a regular basis. It could just be a case of defenses struggling to cope with two jeet-heeled attackers playing for a team that thrives on the break.

That of course does not explain why other players and camps have not won so many penalties in total. United’s dizzying scoring cannot simply be attributed to two forwards. We may only be looking at a statistical anomaly that could even extinguish itself in five years.

For now, however, the fact is that United are winning an unusually high number of penalties.

And Klopp will just have to deal with it. And, for the sake of Liverpool, hopefully a lot better than Benitez …

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