Florida State (-5.5) in Pitt
The state of Florida is currently chasing ACC crown and Pitt will be the last on their way. The spread is only -5.5 in favor of FSU as this is a potential disappointment after the 81-60 win against Virginia. The Florida State certainly strained their muscles in that game, and the inclusion of a Pitt squad to lose three games shouldn’t be overlooked.
Florida State is 1-2 SU on the road this season, losing to Clemson and Georgia Tech but beating Louisville. Pitt is 1-3 SU over the last four home games and loses by one, 10 and 26 points. For this matchup, NBC Edge’s best trend is the Over for both squads.
The Over is 28-12-2 (70.0%) in the last 42 Florida state games, after a day of rest. The Over is 12-4 (75.0%) in Pitt’s last 16 games against teams with a winning ATS record. While the Over is at a high 146.0, I’ll focus here on the first half total for the state of Florida.
I expect Florida State to get off to a quick start in this matchup. In the past five wins for the Seminoles, they have scored 45 (Virginia), 41 (Wake Forest), 35 (Miami) and 42 (Clemson and Louisville) points in the first half. Florida State lost one game in the 2021 calendar year to Georgia Tech. The Seminoles lost that game to a gruesome start, scoring only 26 runs in that half and 39 in the second. Along the way, Florida State scored 26 (Georgia Tech), 34 (Clemson) and 42 points (Louisville) in the first half.
Pitt has lost three consecutive games and their first half of basketball was not the best. They had dropped 40-39 to NC State, 31-17 to Georgia Tech, and 30-27 to Virginia during that stretch. Pitt’s two-point defense ranks 14th out of 15 teams with a 53.9% score in conference play. The Panthers’ defensive efficiency is ranked 11th (105.4) and their average possession length is fifth worst (17.7 seconds). Teams took advantage of Pitt early on, and the Florida State attack can replicate that.
In Pitt’s last five ACC home games, they were tied or behind at half-time: 40-39 (NC State), 31-31 (Virginia Tech), 41-29 (Notre Dame), and 34-29 (North Carolina). Pitt led 43-34 (Duke) in the half of one of the last five home conferences.
This will be the only meeting of the season between the two teams and Florida currently has a lot more to play. Florida State (8-2) defeated Virginia (11-2) and is now in exclusive possession of second place in the ACC. Pitt is at 5-7 in conference play and 11th in the standings with three games remaining after this game against NC State, Wake Forest and Clemson.
It looks like Pitt will finish below .500 in conference play, while Florida State can swipe and take the ACC crown if they win with five games remaining, including this matchup. Return to seminars to score regularly and get started quickly. I will also play the Florida State ML in my parlays today, as they should be rolling against a Pitt squad that’s 1-6 SU in the past seven games, losing by six or more in four of those matchups.
Bet locked: Florida State 1H Team Total over 35.5 (1h)
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UConn at Villanova (-6.5)
Villanova comes off the Wildcats’ third loss of the season. Villanova won 87-53 (Hartford) and 84-74 (Georgetown), the last two games came from a SU defeat. All of Villanova’s losses this season have been on road or field neutrals, and they are returning home where they are 6-0 SU.
UConn has won two consecutive times, beating Xavier (80-72) and Providence (73-61). Before that, the Huskies were 1-4 SU in the previous five games.
This is the first meeting between the teams since 2013 with UConn’s return to the Great East. Villanova’s defense fell apart in the final game, giving Creighton 86 points, a season high. The Over has been set at 137.0 for this encounter and in the past three games, the Over has been 3-0 in Villanova’s games and 2-1 in UConn’s.
Villanova and UConn are in the top five in the Great East for an offensive three-point percentage. However, Nova is one of the worst teams in the country, defending the three with a 315th place finish with 37.8%. UConn is a top 100 team from deep, with a 95th place finish at 35.5%.
Villanova has five players with an average of double figures and UConn has three. Villanova is fifth in the country for adjusted offensive efficiency and scores 121.9 points per 100 assets and I think that will be too much for UConn today.
Villanova is one of the best bets on NBC’s model today, and I have to support that as they should walk away with a SU win. If James Bouknight didn’t return for the Huskies I’d be here on the spread for Nova, but I like the SU win for the Wildcats and a possible cover for the Huskies.
I’ll be playing Florida State’s Moneyline with Villanova’s Moneyline for a -110 chance at FanDuel.
Bet locked: Florida State and Villanova Moneyline parlay (1h)
Eastern Michigan in Kent State (-14)
Eastern Michigan (EMU) is coming off a 25-day hiatus, last playing a game on January 26, losing 86-65 at Akron. EMU has lost four consecutive games, all by eleven or more. They don’t have much to play for either, as they sit 1-7 SU in conference play, while Kent State is third at 10-4 in the MAC.
EMU ranks second among worst or last in just about every category in MAC game. For offensive two-point and three-point percentage, plus both categories defensive, EMU is in eleventh or twelfth place. The same goes for offensive and defensive efficiency and an effective field goal percentage at both ends of the floor.
Kent State has won three consecutive games, scoring 71, 76 and 80 points in that play. The Golden Flash has won six of the last seven games, making it the only meeting with EMU of the season. Kent State is home 11-1 of EMU of all time, winning the last three-of-four games in Kent, Ohio with 10, 13 and 15 points. Last season, the two teams finished 86-76 when they met in Kent and 70-49 at EMU.
Kent State won 14 in a row to open this streak before the two split 5-5 SU for the last 10 meetings. Kent State is the much better team right now and now that EMU has been on hiatus for nearly a month, take the Golden Flash to boost the score.
Bet locked: Kent State -14 (1h)
South Alabama at Appalachian State (-1)
Friday’s meeting featured a 65-63 finish with both teams shooting porous from the field and past the arch. App State returned from a 20-day hiatus last played on January 30. In the first game back, App State shot the two at 23.1% (11/38) and three at 23.1% (6/26). Most of their runs came from the free-throw line, which went 23 of 27 (85.2%).
For South Alabama, they had a better offensive outing, with 16 of 34 (47.1%) and 8 of 23 (34.8%) from deep. Today’s App State outing will be better than last night’s and the two have a history of Overs. In the past 12 meetings, the score has reached or exceeded 133 points in 11 points through Friday.
The Over is 5-2 in App State’s last seven games in total and 5-1 in the previous six against a team with a winning SU record. South Alabama is 4-1 the Over versus a team with a winning SU record in the past five.
App State comes in with three double-digit average players, Adrian Delph (12.4 ppg), Donovan Gregory (11.5 ppg), and Michael Almonacy (10.8 ppg). South Alabama has now won seven consecutive games and four players have scored 10 or more points from App State. Both teams have offensive talent, and App State isn’t nearly as talented as it is defensive in South Alabama.
App State ranks last in conference play, defending the two (53.7%) and effective field goal defense (53.0%). South Alabama can certainly score and has had no problems in the past three meetings.
These two teams will meet for the fourth time overall this season. In the first two meetings, South Alabama won the first 73-64 (137) and App State won the second 83-77 (160). The third gathering was Friday 65-63’s fight party. App State has averaged 75.0 points per game this season in the past six home games at the conference. South Alabama averaged 65.4 points per game on the road in conference road games and compared to App State this season, South Alabama averaged 71.6 per game.
South Alabama owns the 11-3 all-time series and while I support App State for the win and even the 2-2 season series, I will be rocking the Over as both teams have a history of scoring on each other.
Bet locked: More than 135 (1h)
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