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Colorado vs. Florida State (-1.5)

The No. 4 seed Florida State Seminoles will compete against the No. 5 scheduled Colorado Buffaloes in a highly anticipated matchup. Florida State used a +7 points second half to seal the win, while Colorado flew past Georgetown on the first lap. This is the very first basketball meeting between Colorado and the state of Florida.

Colorado will have new legs in this matchup after just three players record more than 28 minutes. The Buffaloes played 13 players, nine of them at 11 or more minutes and 11 guys finished with at least two points.

An important aspect in this matchup is the turnover battle. The Buffalos take care of the ball much better than the Seminoles in the past three games. Colorado spins the ball 10.7 times per game in that period, while Florida is at 19.3, the third most in the country.

The Seminoles are in 248th place for offensive turnover rate (20.3%) and 272nd in offensive steal rate (10.1%). The Buffalos don’t force many turns, rarely pick up more than five stems, but that doesn’t matter if they rarely turn the ball over. Florida State has a total of four combined steals in the last two games and Colorado has five.

Using NBC Sports Edge FinderI created my own trend. I went back to Head Coach Tad Boyle’s first year and watched how Colorado has performed when they are +1 or +1.5 underdogs. Well, they are 8-4 ATS (66.6%) in that role, cashing in on five consecutive times before losing 65-62 to UCLA this season (+1.5).

Colorado CBB Trend as +1 and +1.5

Colorado CBB Trend as +1 and +1.5

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Florida State is 2-4-1 ATS (33.3%) in its road races this season and 5-1-1 (83.3%) for the Over. Florida State has won three of the last six games and has gone 1-4-1 ATS (20%).

Colorado is 5-7 ATS (41.6%) on the road and 10-2 (83.3%) to the Under this season. Colorado is 1-4 ATS (20%) this season as an underdog, failing to beat the last two games with a combined three points. The Buffalo could easily be a 3-2 situation if the dog went their way like one or two bounces.

Both teams have five players who have averaged nine or more points per game in the last three games. I can see Colorado using its fresh legs and building an early lead over Florida State with its three-point shooting and faster pace. The state of Florida is also struggling to shoot the three here and there, which worries me.

Versus UNCG, Florida State went 0 of 9 of three after 8 of 15 (53.3%) against Georgia Tech. Colorado hits the trey ball with 42.5% over the last five games, 17th place, and 50% over the previous three games (3rd).

Colorado hasn’t progressed to the Sweet 16 since 1955 or won two games in the NCAA tournament – yes, 66 years ago. That Colorado team went to the Final Four. Florida State has moved to the Sweet 16 three times, led by Head Coach Leonard Hamilton.

I have this Buffaloes team making the Elite 8 and will happily take the points here. They have been underrated all season while I can argue that Florida State is overrated. I like that the Buffs go ahead and take the points.

Game selection: Colorado +1.5 (1h)

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