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How Apple-Epic Court Decisions Can Affect Google Analysts




The Google Play logo will be displayed on the screen.

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Wall Street analysts on Monday began to provide an early reaction to how recent decisions in Epic’s proceedings against Apple would affect Google.

On September 10, a judge ruled that Apple’s 30% charge could not be banned from developers providing consumers with a link to pay for in-app purchases outside the App Store. Was given. The judge didn’t admit that Apple was monopolized, but the company’s stock fell 3% in the news and Google fell 2%.

Epic sued Google in 2020 with a similar allegation. The proceedings have not yet been tried and it is unknown when they will be tried. However, Google is in a slightly different position than Apple. Android allows third-party app stores, but Apple’s iOS doesn’t, but the Google Play store, like Apple’s App Store, now allows developers to link to other payment methods. I have not.

Google does not split Play Store revenue. However, a recent unsealed court filing showed that the company generated $ 11.2 billion in revenue, $ 8.5 billion in gross profit, and $ 7 billion in operating profit from the Google Play store last year. This includes in-app purchases and app store ads. Based on these numbers, JP Morgan estimates that non-advertising Google Play revenue will total approximately $ 14 billion in 2021, or approximately 5% of Alphabet’s total revenue.

Analysts at Credit Suisse, Raymond James, Bank of America, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley said Epic vs. Apple’s ruling allowed Google to advertise other payment methods and workarounds to Google’s rates. It states that it indicates that there is a risk that must be taken.

“There is growing concern about Google Play’s earnings,” an analyst at Bank of America said in a memo to investors Monday.

Analysts at Bank of America said it was good news for Google that Apple’s App Store didn’t control the monopoly, but Google said it wasn’t clear yet. Analysts warned that Google’s Android contracts with app companies and device makers are more complex and therefore subject to more anti-competitive scrutiny than Apple. However, they maintained the Buy on Alphabet stake, arguing that Google’s app store regulations could also help reduce the cost of getting traffic to Apple.

Credit Suisse analysts said one share in 2022, compared to $ 3,400 if Google received 0% of Play Store fees in the worst-case theoretical scenario, if the app’s earnings weren’t hit. It is expected to trade at around $ 3,200 per unit.

Google’s core business has the potential to shield potential blockbusters

Analysts at Credit Suisse, Raymond James, Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley have found that other major Google revenue contributors such as Search and YouTube need to adjust the way they raise money from the Play Store. We have agreed to reduce the financial impact that Google may suffer.

Raymond James analysts said that if Google cuts take from developers by 50%, it could lose 4% of its gross profit in 2022. “Our conclusion is that the estimates are at moderate risk, but we believe it will take some time before this is done (especially if it’s likely to appeal), and Google has overall core ad revenue. We remain in a good position to drive continued strength at, “Raymond James analysts said in a note to investors, adding developers saves money from Play Store pricing. He said he was likely to spend on advertising.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said a potential change to how Google would collect money from developers would probably only affect its largest app partners, thus minimizing its impact on Google.




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