Reddit today is introducing a new way to post to the community with the launch of a platform feature called “Forecasting”. Predictions spun off from the popular Reddit poll allow users to guess answers to timely questions such as “Who will win the game tomorrow?” Or “Which character will be destined for the next episode?” Or “How much will Bitcoin prices fluctuate by Monday?”
It’s the first new post format introduced by Reddit in almost two years, and the company says it’s designed to increase engagement with the platform by reducing barriers to posting. This means that some users may be reluctant to post publicly or participate in discussions, but if it takes time to respond to votes and now make predictions. there is.
To use this feature in the Reddit community or subreddit, the moderator first creates a predictive tournament. This is a series of questions that Reddit users predict the answer to. The tournament can contain as many questions as the moderator wants, and you can keep adding new questions after the tournament starts.
Each Reddit user will receive 1,000 tokens when they participate in a predictive tournament. These are free — according to Reddit, there is no token monetization model and no plans to roll out in the future. However, if you use 1,000, users will not be able to get any more tokens during the tournament. That is, you need to bet wisely on all forecasts. Otherwise, you run the risk of losing your ability to answer later questions in the event of a shortage.
Users can place 10 to 100 tokens for each question, but no more or less.
Moderators choose the right answer to their predictions, so they manage the outcome of the tournament and determine the winner. Of course, they are motivated to do this right as community leaders — and neither way they have a financial benefit. In addition, the tokens themselves have no value other than predictive tournaments, Reddit says.
Users who make the right predictions will get more tokens based on the number they initially put in. In other words, the better your predictive skills are, the more you can bet in the future. They also climb higher on the community’s Predictive Tournament Leaderboard.
Reddit has already tested this feature prior to today’s official release, with over 1 million participants participating in predictive tournaments. Popular tournaments included the Oscar Prediction Tournament at r / movies with 100,000 participants. Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictive Tournament in r / formula1. 200,000 people participated. And the 2020 Eurocup Prediction Tournament at r / soccer had more than 300,000 participants.
The company did not first see the value of forecasting as a tool for user engagement.
Last year, Facebook’s internal R & D lab, the NPE team, introduced an app called Forecast that offers a similar feature set. Forecast allows users to make predictions and discuss world events like COVID-19. Since then, the company has announced its entry into the fantasy game market, but with a twist. Instead of building an all-star fantasy team, users make simpler predictions about the game itself. There are also non-sports games where you can guess what will happen on TV shows such as “Survival” and “Single”.
Elsewhere in the App Store, there are several apps for making predictions with friends, often with a focus on sports as well. There are also story filters for personal predictions and other prediction games across social media. For example, Wishbone app maker Mammoth Media released a SnapMini game for Snapchat users last year called Prediction Master.
According to Reddit, this new feature will be rolled out to all communities that have at least 10,000 members and are rated to work safely.
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