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Perosys Taiwan visit is another blow to global tech

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TAIPEI, TAIWAN – AUGUST 3: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), left,. [+] She poses for a photo after being awarded the Special Grand Cordon of the Order by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei, Taiwan, August 3, 2022. Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday as part of a tour of Asia intended to reassure allies in the region. (Photo by Chien Chih-Hung/President’s Office via Getty Images)

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One of the key events in the severing of U.S.-China relations was Vice President Mike Pence’s speech at the Hudson Institute in October 2018, when his hostility to China was breathtaking. Two months after the speech, Huawei’s chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, was arrested in Canada under a Trump administration bequest. At this point, the fragmented relationship between the United States and China began to affect the global tech industry as well.

The Trump administration’s policy toward China has been a rare example of consensus-building and leading across America’s political, industrial, and military complexes. Many corporate leaders in the United States, who generally disdained the style and content of Trump’s politics, were pleased with his rebuke of China, and said that the relationship had reached a tipping point, with China no longer importing innovation from the West. part felt. in exchange for deflationary exports.

aggressive china

For their part, many of China’s policy makers studied and lived in America to better understand it, but only in the face of atypical American leaders did the watershed come. I felt that. self-assertion Indeed, since that time, China has irritated most of its Asian neighbors (e.g. skirmishing with Indian forces, attacking Australia, provoking Japan, etc.).

In that context, China’s (over)reaction to Nancy Pelosis’ visit to Taiwan is itself a turning point. They could have easily dismissed the event as a show-off by propaganda-hungry Western politicians, but they didn’t.

The military-led response betrayed much of Xi Jinping’s leadership, China’s reading of its military readiness and regional status. The side effect is to accelerate the game theory scenario around a Taiwan-centric geopolitical contest. I’m no expert here, so I’ll leave the composition of this to others, except to say that Taiwan will be more prominent in the thriller script, as I hypothesized a few weeks ago (Taneshima’s thriller).

From an economic and strategic perspective, Perosis’ visit is to follow Huawei’s thread to bring governments and technology companies closer together (appropriately, her husband Paul’s tech stock trading record is You can beat anyone!).

A good example is the semiconductor industry. In recent weeks, Taiwan’s MediaTek and Intel INTC have signed production deals, and the United States has passed the CHIPS HIPS Act, which encourages the production of semiconductor chips in the United States, giving foreign technology companies (such as Samsung and SK Hynix) Forced to choose the US technology market. Chinese stuff. Meanwhile, his SMIC in China reportedly advanced chip technology (this is one area where China lags far behind the West).

Great Schism

The great divide of globalization means that technology companies, especially those in sensitive sectors, must choose which side to take. This might be the case with consumer brands like Nike NKE and Apple AAPL, but it’s probably not the case with French brands that can pretend not to care.

There are several ways technology companies approach. Several US data, internet, and telecom companies are actively supporting Ukraine, as is the US cybersecurity community. In particular, the invasion of Ukraine is reconfiguring the techno-defense industry across the United States and Europe.

Drones, AI, signals, space warfare (remember Trump’s SpaceForce), railguns and robotics are just a few of the emerging areas of defense R&D at a time when global defense spending is reaching a record US$2.3 trillion. only part of it. The arms race takes on a powerful technology-driven new dimension that only requires reading the scenario of what naval warfare in the South China Sea might look like (hypersonic missiles, lasers, cyberattacks).

In general, away from the battlefield, across the three large regions, technology companies at the heart of strategic activity gravitate towards governments, and in some cases spend more money lobbying them. There is a race to stay ahead not only in building cutting-edge technologies, but also in setting the standards and norms that govern them.

From that perspective, technology and data regulations are also becoming more region-specific, making the activities of Chinese companies in Europe and the US more problematic.

defi

Other emerging technologies are also witnessing this. For example, one of the key battles in finance is between the crypto-centric defi (or decentralized financial networks) and the traditional financial world. The withdrawal of liquidity by an old institution in the form of the Federal Reserve has caused a collapse in parts of the crypto world, with many exchanges failing and entire crypto exchanges being investigated by the SEC. Much of this effort is aimed at limiting fraud and misconduct, but there is also a strategic element to dominating the world of defi.

The metaverse may receive similar treatment. It exists beyond our real world, but the companies creating Facebook/Meta are well grounded in old world public policies and issues.

So while the explosion of Chinese nationalism (more to be expected on this one) is a clear pre and post Pelosi visit, the event is now a world where technology in innovation, initiative and regulation is becoming more regional. Just one of many events to watch. .

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2022/08/06/pelosis-taiwan-visit-is-another-blow-to-global-tech/

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