This is the golden time for China’s hard tech innovation
As China reopens and eases Covid restrictions, we dived into interpreting China’s latest economic goals and objectives and putting them into the broader context of China’s relationship with the global economy.
One of the metrics we looked at is China’s ranking in the global value chain (GVC). GVCs are part of today’s finished product and are powerful drivers of increased productivity, job creation and improved living standards.
The size of the bubble represents the amount of domestic value added absorbed by foreign countries relative to total exports. Charts have been reconstructed from source for reference.Source: ADB MRIO database, CICC Institute
The GVC Position Index measures positions upstream or downstream in the value chain. Russia mainly exports minerals. It’s oil or gas, so it’s upstream. Japan and the United States are upstream as they export R&D, intellectual property, and semi-finished products. China is downstream because it often exports products in a highly complete state.
More interesting is the bubble size. It represents the percentage of domestic value added to the total export value. China and the US are he two biggest bubbles, but China’s export to GDP ratio is ~20% compared to ~10% for the US. In addition, the United States mainly exports her IP and high-value components, while China exports more low-value-added assemblies.
For China to grow its bubble, it needs to add more value to the final product through innovation and manufacturing of higher value commodities. Otherwise, China has no raw material advantage, so it can’t do much better. We also see that the US can expand the bubble by bringing manufacturing back home and shipping more finished goods.
The GVC Position Index is closely related to the latest policy directions unveiled at the 20th National Congress of China, the most important political conference to be held in October 2022. this country for the next five years.
The gist of his speech was unmistakably focused on the pursuit of innovation. It was declared that China should use technology as its primary productive force and innovation as its primary engine.
(1) Concentrate national resources on strategic areas, (2) Build a globally competitive open innovation ecosystem, and (3) Develop original cutting-edge innovations. Supported.
Other highlights drawn from the week-long political conference include the goal of China achieving modern socialism by 2035. This is done through demographic modernization and achieving common prosperity through narrowing wealth inequality. Prosperity is defined as including material and spiritual wealth. His two points also stand out: harmony with nature through green development, and peaceful development.
The Chinese economy attaches great importance to quality development through:Strong manufacturing sector (strength as well as size) High quality output, innovation driven productivity growth Strong environmental/climate considerations
The important message about environmental responsibility is interesting. Xi Jinping’s speech hinted to Xian li hou po the meaning of rising above and breaking through, but omitted mention of specific years for carbon peak and carbon neutral targets. China wants to establish sufficient clean energy sources before shutting down traditional energy sources. Achieving a carbon peak in 2030 and he is abandoning his previous stringent commitment to carbon neutrality in 2060 to take a more pragmatic and flexible path.
President Xi also set three major themes to support China’s goals for the next five years.
Three main themes underpinning China’s growth:
Theme 1: The state-owned economy will be the central theme of the economy. Theme 2: Earning a fair share of wealth through labor, not just capitalist wealth creation. Theme 3: Focus on domestic distribution to provide high-quality, reliable goods and services for the domestic population.
An unusual keyword that stood out in his speech was dou zheng, which means struggle for foreign influence. This hints at how China must face its opponents with confidence, and shows China’s readiness to face confrontation with the West over its core interests and values.
Overall, I think the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China has made clear what is important for China’s leaders. Never before has there been such clear, strong and solid policy support for China’s hard tech, innovation and manufacturing upgrades, and the golden age is right here.
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