AI Scientist Ray Kurzweil: Intelligence will expand 1 million-fold by 2045 | Artificial Intelligence (AI)

American computer scientist and technology optimist Ray Kurzweil has been a leading authority on artificial intelligence (AI) for many years. His 2005 bestselling book, The Singularity is Near, captured the public imagination with its sci-fi predictions that computers would reach human-level intelligence by 2029 and that around 2045 humans would merge with computers to become superhumans, a phenomenon he called the Singularity. Nearly two decades later, the 76-year-old has written a sequel, The Singularity is Near, and some of his predictions no longer seem so far-fetched. Kurzweil's day job is as a principal scientist and AI visionary at Google. He spoke to the Observer in his capacity as an author, inventor and futurist.

Why did I write this book? In The Singularity is Near I talked about the future, but that was 20 years ago, when people didn't know what AI was. It was clear to me what was going to happen, but not everyone understood it. Now AI has become mainstream in the conversation. It's time to take another look at both the progress we've made, how much fun we've had using Large Language Models (LLMs), and the breakthroughs that are coming.

My predictions for 2029 and 2045 haven't changed. I've been consistent: 2029 for both human-level intelligence and, slightly differently, artificial general intelligence (AGI). Human-level intelligence generally means AI that has reached the most skilled human capabilities in a given domain, and by 2029 it will have been achieved in most respects. (Even after 2029, there may be a transitional period of a few years where AI doesn't surpass top humans in some key skills, like writing an Academy Award-winning screenplay or generating deep new philosophical insights, but it will eventually surpass them.) AGI means AI that can do everything humans can do, just at a better level. AGI sounds harder, but it will arrive at the same time. And my 5-year predictions are actually conservative. Elon Musk recently said it will be within 2 years.

We need to be aware of the potential here and keep an eye on what AI is doing, but it would be unwise to just oppose it.

Why should I believe your date? I am the only person who predicted the huge interest in AI we see today. Back in 1999, people thought it would take more than a century. I said 30 years, what about now? The most important driver is the exponential increase in computing power for a constant dollar price. We are doubling the price/performance ratio every 15 months. LLM only started working 2 years ago due to the increase in computing power.

What is currently missing to reach the level that AI is predicted to reach in 2029? First, more computing power, which is coming soon. This will improve contextual memory, common sense reasoning, and social interaction, all of which are still areas of weakness. Second, we need better algorithms and more data to answer more questions. LLM Hallucinations [where they create nonsensical or inaccurate outputs] By 2029, there will be much less AI than there were two years ago. Problems arise because AI doesn't have the answers and doesn't know them. AI will look for the best, which may be wrong or inappropriate. As AI gets smarter, it will understand its own knowledge more accurately and be able to accurately report back to humans when it doesn't know.

What exactly is the singularity? Right now, our brains only have one size and we can’t get smarter than that. But the cloud is getting smarter and smarter, and it’s really growing without limit. The singularity is a metaphor borrowed from physics that will occur when our brains and the cloud merge. Our natural intelligence and cybernetic intelligence will combine and everything will become one. This will be made possible by brain-computer interfaces, which will eventually be nanobot robots the size of molecules that will enter the brain non-invasively through capillaries. By 2045, our intelligence will have expanded a million times and our awareness and consciousness will have deepened.

It's hard to imagine what this would be like, but I don't think it would be very appealing. Think of it like having a cell phone inside your brain. You ask a question, and your brain can access the cloud to get the answer. This is similar to what you do with your cell phone today, but it would be instantaneous, with no input or output issues, and you wouldn't even know it was happening (the answer would just appear). People say they don't want that. They thought they didn't want cell phones either!

Kurzweil in Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1977, holding the Kurzweil Reading Machine, which converts printed words into synthetic speech. Photo: Bettman Archive

What about the existential risk that advanced AI systems will gain unexpected powers and do serious harm to humanity? AI godfather Geoffrey Hinton left Google last year in part over such concerns, and other prominent tech leaders, including Elon Musk, have also sounded the alarm. Earlier this month, employees at OpenAI and Google DeepMind called for stronger protections for whistleblowers who raise safety concerns. I've written a chapter on the dangers. I've been involved in efforts to figure out the best way forward, and helped develop the Asilomar AI Principles. [a 2017 non-legally binding set of guidelines for responsible AI development]We need to be aware of the potential here and keep an eye on what AI is doing. But it would be unwise to just be against AI, because the benefits are so great. All the big companies are focusing on making sure their systems are safe and aligned with human values, rather than on creating new advancements, and that's a good thing.

Are there any physical limitations to computing power that will slow you down? Computing today is basically perfect. It gets better every year and will continue in that area. There are many ways to keep improving chips. We are just starting to use 3D. [create 3D chips]which will serve us well for many years to come. I don't think we need quantum computing, because we've never been able to demonstrate its value.

You claim that the Turing test, where an AI can communicate in text indistinguishably from a human, will be passed by 2029. But to pass it, the AI ​​needs to be de-leveled. Why? Humans are not so precise and don't know a lot! Today, you can ask a law master very specific questions about any theory in any field and he will answer very intelligently. But who can do that? If a human answered like that, you would know it's a machine. The test is trying to imitate humans, so that's the purpose of de-leveling. Some people report that GPT-4 can pass the Turing test. I think it will take a few more years to solve this problem.

Not everyone can afford the technology of the future that you envision. Are you worried about technological inequality? If you're wealthy, you can buy these technologies early on, but there will be a time when the technology doesn't work. [mobile] When mobile phones were new, they were very expensive and had terrible features. They had access to very little information and they couldn't communicate with the cloud. Now mobile phones are very affordable and very useful. About three-quarters of people in the world have a mobile phone. So the same thing will happen here. This problem will go away over time.

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My first plan is to reach longevity escape velocity and stay alive. Also, I plan to create my own replicants.

This book takes a detailed look at the potential for AI to take over jobs. Should we be worried? Yes and no. Certain types of jobs will be automated and people will be affected. But new capabilities will also create new jobs. Jobs like social media influencers didn't make sense even 10 years ago. Today we have more jobs than ever before, and the average individual income per hour worked in the United States is 10 times what it was 100 years ago, in today's dollars. In the 2030s, a universal basic income will be launched to help cushion the damage from job disruption. It won't be enough at the time, but it will be enough over time.

There are other worrying ways beyond job losses that AI promises to change the world: the spread of misinformation, harm from biased algorithms, increased surveillance, and so on. We shouldn't think too much about those. We have to deal with certain kinds of problems: the election is coming up, and deepfake videos are worrying. I think we can actually solve that. [whats fake] But if it happens right before the election, there's no time. On the issue of bias, AI is learning from humans, and humans have biases. We're making progress, but we're not where we'd like to be. There are also issues around fair data use by AI, which will need to be resolved through legal processes.

What work do you do at Google and was this book reviewed before it was published? I advise Google on various ways to improve their products and advance their technology, including the LLM. I wrote this book in my personal capacity. Google is happy for me to publish these books and they were not reviewed.

Many will be skeptical of your predictions about physical and digital immortality. You expect that in the 2030s we will have medical nanobots that will enter our bodies and repair them, allowing us to continue living indefinitely. You also expect that in the 2040s we will have after-death technology that will allow us to upload and restore our minds or put them into convincing androids even if we experience biological death. Everything is advancing by leaps and bounds. Not just in computing power, but also in our understanding of biology and our ability to engineer at much smaller scales. In the early 2030s, we can expect to reach longevity escape velocity. At that rate, for every year of life we ​​lose to aging, we will regain it through scientific advances. And once we pass that rate, we will actually get many more years back. There is no solid guarantee that we will live forever. Accidents will still happen, but the odds of death will not increase year by year. The ability to digitally bring deceased humans back to life would raise some interesting social and legal questions.

What are your own plans for immortality? My primary plan is to stay alive, i.e. reach longevity escape velocity. I take about 80 pills per day to stay healthy. Cryogenic freezing is an alternative. I also intend to create replicants of myself. [an afterlife AI avatar]I think this is a choice that everyone has in the late 2020s. I did something similar with my father, where I collected everything he'd written in his life, and it was a bit like talking to him. [My replicant] It allows me to work with more materials and more authentically express my personality.

What can we do now to prepare for the future? AI is not against us. AI is with us. AI will enable us to create new things that were never possible before. It's going to be a very exciting future.

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