Tech

Tech Radar: Residential Propane Heat Pumps

Stephanie Diaz, Technology and Innovation Analyst, BloombergNEF

Heat pumps that use propane as a refrigerant are gaining market share. As hydrofluorocarbons, a group of chemicals that are excellent refrigerants but also powerful greenhouse gases, are phased out globally, propane heat pumps are carving out a new spot in the residential heat pump market. Europe is leading the way in propane refrigerant adoption, but the U.S. market is hampered by safety standards.

Heat pumps are essential to decarbonizing indoor space heating and cooling. In 2023, spending on this technology reached $63 billion globally. However, the refrigerants used in heat pumps are very potent greenhouse gases, and refrigerant leakage accounts for 31% of GHG emissions related to space cooling. To mitigate these impacts, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol establishes a phase-out of hydrofluorocarbons. In light of this treaty, propane heat pumps are gaining market share in residential heating and cooling. Propane is an excellent refrigerant, and the performance of propane heat pumps is comparable to their hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) equivalents. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) manufacturers such as Panasonic, Vissmann, Bosch, and Ayla will launch a total of more than 60 propane heat pump models in 2023, with more than 20 models announced so far this year. Earlier this year, the European Union enacted into law a ban on HFCs for certain types and sizes of heat pumps. In response, European HVAC manufacturers are actively transitioning to propane heat pumps, and in 2022, 8% of heat pump sales in the region were models using natural refrigerants such as propane. In contrast, propane heat pumps are not commercially available in the United States due to a lack of updated safety codes and standards. Revision of these codes could take years, slowing the adoption of these heat pumps in the United States. The high upfront cost of heat pumps is a barrier to adoption. Experts who spoke with BNEF were divided on whether propane heat pumps will be more expensive or cheaper than HFC heat pumps. However, their ability to achieve higher output temperatures could reduce the cost of insulation and other upgrades required for retrofits, lowering installation costs.

BNEF clients can access the full report here.

About BloombergNEF

BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert research assesses paths for the power, transportation, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commodity trading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and create opportunity.

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