A tale of two energy futures

As Peter Dutton pushes ahead with his vision for a nuclear-powered Australia, New Zealanders should also be thinking about their own energy future. With the right energy policy choices, New Zealand has the opportunity to redefine its economic future. While Australia is debating atom splitting, New Zealand is sitting on a geothermal gold mine.

A fundamental question shared by Australia and New Zealand is how open each country wants to be in embracing technological change.

Dutton's proposal to build seven nuclear power plants by the mid-2030s has reignited Australia's long-simmering nuclear debate. It's a bold vision, promising reliable, zero-emissions baseload power to support the country's growing energy needs and fight climate change.

But Dutton's plan faces significant obstacles, including billions of dollars in costs, complex regulatory hurdles and an optimistic timeline that has drawn skepticism from experts and criticism from political opponents.

Dutton's plan may be controversial in Australia, but it would be unthinkable in New Zealand, where anti-nuclear sentiment is so strong that the country was willing to sacrifice a security treaty with the United States to maintain it.

New Zealand's nuclear-free policy is a key element of national identity for many New Zealanders, and it also represents a national scepticism about technological advances that may be holding the country back from realizing its economic potential.

The 2024 Edelman Trust Barometer has revealed that 52% of New Zealanders reject artificial intelligence (AI) as an important innovation, compared with just 35% globally.

These figures reflect a widespread wariness of technology, not just AI and nuclear power, but also the country's strict anti-GMO policies and meager investment in research and development. At just 1.4% of GDP, it is well below the OECD average and far behind innovation leaders such as Finland (3%) and Israel (5.6%).

The origins of this reluctance are complex. In part, it is because New Zealand has successfully marketed itself as a paradise of untouched nature. The 100% Pure New Zealand campaign is deeply intertwined with the country's identity.

For a country that has built its brand on untouched nature and Hobbiton tourism, embracing AI and robotics may seem off-message, but perhaps New Zealand's fixation on a clean, green image has unintentionally limited its potential.

This is not to say that New Zealand is completely behind in terms of technology. New Zealand has produced notable success stories such as accounting software company Xero, space exploration company Rocket Lab and real-time GDP forecasting tool GDPLive. These examples prove that New Zealand has the talent and creativity to compete on the global tech stage. But these are the exception, not the rule.

Ironically, New Zealand could combine a clean, green image with new technology if it was willing to embrace artificial intelligence, because its geothermal resources offer a perfect blend of environmental protection and technological advancement.

With over 17% of New Zealand's electricity already generated from geothermal resources and significant growth in generating capacity, the country could be a perfect location for a burgeoning data center industry. New Zealand's geothermal fields, particularly the Taupo Volcanic Field, are among the most significant and accessible geothermal resources in the world.

Meanwhile, the global artificial intelligence boom is creating unprecedented demand for these energy-hungry facilities: The International Energy Agency predicts that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2026, reaching a level equivalent to Japan's current electricity use.

New Zealand's abundant geothermal energy and cool climate make it an ideal location for such a project, which could bring in billions of dollars of investment, create thousands of high-paying skilled jobs and provide a major boost to the New Zealand economy.

So what's stopping New Zealand's geothermal boom from happening on a larger scale?

The challenge lies not only in the technical aspects of geothermal development, but also in convincing a skeptical public of its benefits.

For many New Zealanders, the idea of ​​expanding energy production primarily to power data centers, a technology that doesn't fully understand or trust, will be hard to stomach – there's a disconnect between the country's clean, green self-image and the intrusiveness of large-scale tech infrastructure.

This resistance is compounded by a general wariness of rapid technological change – there may be concern that embracing AI and big tech companies could fundamentally change the character of the country and undermine the attributes that make New Zealand unique.

Overcoming this cultural inertia will require not only policy changes but also a shift in national mindset to reconcile technological advances with environmental stewardship.

The country has complex permitting processes regulated by multiple statutes. Local councils have primary authority over geothermal resource allocation, resulting in inconsistent policies across regions and creating uncertainty for developers. Environmental concerns arising from the negative impacts of past geothermal developments further complicate the situation.

Moreover, much of New Zealand's geothermal resources are located on Mori people-owned land, and consultation with Indigenous landowners is essential for equitable development, but this could be a lengthy negotiation process.

Economic barriers compound these challenges: exploration and drilling require significant upfront costs, and long-term power purchase agreements are difficult to secure in New Zealand's electricity market.

Moving forward, we need a cultural shift to embrace technological change, as well as policy reforms to streamline geothermal development while maintaining strong environmental protections and respect for forest rights. Indeed, forests will have a unique opportunity to benefit from the resulting investments.

This energy debate has huge implications for both Australia and New Zealand, as Australia's nuclear ambitions could dramatically change the country's energy landscape.

Meanwhile, if New Zealand can overcome its cultural aversion to disruptive technology, it has the potential to harness its current enthusiasm to become a model for sustainable innovation in the AI ​​era.

Click here to read the article on the Australian website.

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