The end of technology's glory days

Deep in our memories, most of us can recall the iconic “popular” kids from our school days. They exuded charm, wit and a flair for exaggeration and seemed to navigate the social hierarchy effortlessly. However, while their glamour was undeniable, their journey after high school often led them to come face to face with reality. Interestingly, a similar story is unfolding in the dynamic landscape of the technology industry colloquially known as Silicon Valley.

Take, for example, the migration of enterprise applications to the cloud. Nearly all predictions about cloud migration (in a nutshell: “everyone is moving to the cloud”) have been wrong. Most enterprise applications remain on-premise and show no signs of moving anytime soon. When you peel back the layers of the cloud onion, the reality is that it has some advantages over on-premise computing. Yet, the real driver is that an annual subscription model is far more profitable for technology vendors than a single license agreement.

The relentless push towards cloud computing has much more to do with its favorable economics than its superior technical capabilities, and customers are aware of it. The tech industry has been at its peak, telling us that running applications on-premise is not cool, that everyone is moving to the cloud and getting to the status quo. This message has worked to an extent, but recently in Europe, public controversy forced SAP to clarify how much of its customer base and revenue comes from cloud-based business (theregister.com/2023/11/30/sap_cloud_innovation_worries). In reality, not much. The company has had a cloud-first approach for decades, and customers are perfectly happy with the status quo.

GenAI Hype and the Tech Bubble

The hype surrounding GenAI mirrors exaggerated stories of the past. Vendors tout the ubiquity of GenAI, but its actual applications are limited to mundane tasks such as document summarization. The disconnect between perception and reality highlights a broader trend within the tech bubble: a disconnect with tangible outcomes. Indeed, Silicon Valley's once glamorous facade is showing signs of wear. Increased scrutiny from policymakers, consumers, and businesses, combined with stagnant investment, has shattered the bubble's aura of invincibility. Incidents such as the chaos at X (formerly Twitter) after its ownership change, dangerous self-driving car accidents, and the widely publicized hallucinations created by GenAI products such as ChatGPT only further erode trust.

It's a bit of a dig to say it, but things have been bad in this industry for a long time now. Technology is sometimes great, but often out of touch with reality. I've been spending a lot of time in Silicon Valley this year, and a conversation I had with a Chief Product Officer reflected a larger problem. He told me about an expensive new product that his team developed and launched last year, but has yet to sell. He told me that the entire concept for the product was developed in-house, and everyone in the company was excited about it. But once the product was on the market, it turned out that no one was interested in it except the company and the employees' friends. That kind of clique mentality played a big role in the collapse of the dot-com bubble over 20 years ago, and it must change and be challenged.

There are some signs that things are starting to change. At Deep Analysis, our clients are becoming more specific than ever in the advice they are seeking, digging deeper than ever into actual business and industry needs rather than just guessing. The question is, will things change fast enough?

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