Energy-hungry AI has pushed Google and Microsoft off the net-zero path

Efforts like tree planting generate carbon credits that companies can buy to use without having to clean up their own actions, and verification by the SBTi allows companies to say their climate plans are in line with science and the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming.

The carbon credit market was already opaque, and the promotion of commercial use by companies was too much for SBTi staff to bear. Amaral said he was stepping down for personal reasons, without mentioning the furor that had erupted after the group reversed its long-held position.

While the production and burning of fossil fuels is often blamed for being an environmentally unfriendly practice, it may soon become clear that the real culprit is Big Tech. It's hard to gauge exactly how much carbon dioxide Big Tech is pumping into the atmosphere, but according to Goldman Sachs, at least in the U.S., electricity use by data centers is expected to more than double by 2030, to 8% from just 3% in 2022 (bit.ly/3XLxUNz).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that electricity consumption from cryptocurrencies, data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) could double by as early as 2026 compared to 2022 (bit.ly/3RX5HiZ). However, the IEA's projections vary, and the report says that data centers, cryptocurrencies and AI combined could increase global electricity demand by at least the size of Sweden and as much as the size of Germany.

There is a big difference in electricity consumption between the two countries, but even those small figures added up is frightening enough.

Around the same time as Amaral's resignation, news broke that emissions from Google Inc., a major supplier/user of AI, had increased by about 50% in five years due to demand for artificial intelligence (AI) projects, now fueled by the race to succeed generative AI (GenAI).

In Google's case, its 2024 annual environmental report (bit.ly/3zw5IUV) sees emissions growing to 14.3 million tonnes in 2023. That's a staggering increase of almost 50% since 2019, the base year for the company's goal to reach net zero (meaning removing the same amount of carbon dioxide it emits) by 2030. The company now says its goal to reach net zero by 2030 is “extremely ambitious and will not be easy.”

Meanwhile, Microsoft has been steadily increasing its investments in AI, both directly and through its large investment in OpenAI, leading to a 30% increase in carbon emissions since 2020.

AI was already a power hog, but the rise of GenAI has sent these companies’ energy needs into the stratosphere: Producing text, songs, images, and video clips can quickly consume megawatts of power.

GenAI applications that generate images and videos will place a particular strain on the power grid — text uses relatively little power — and companies like Microsoft are now beginning to warn that this could set back carbon emissions reduction targets.

Four years ago, Microsoft pledged to get its carbon emissions to zero (or lower) by the end of the century. But now, in an interview with Bloomberg, Microsoft president Brad Smith said, “In 2020, we announced what we called the Carbon Moonshot. And that was before artificial intelligence exploded.”

Moreover, “if we just consider our own projections for the expansion of AI and its power needs, in many ways the Moon is five times further away than it was in 2020” (bloom.bg/3RWgEBw). Five times further away? That's a pretty big step back in just four years.

On paper, at least, Microsoft buys renewable carbon credits to lend credibility to its efforts to promote clean energy use. But Renewable Energy Certificates are a shell game. Let's say Company X is a renewable energy company (one that uses wind or solar sources).

Companies sell electricity to consumers like you and me, and to companies like Microsoft, and they make a profit from that sale. They also sell the greenness or renewable nature of that electricity to private and commercial buyers through Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). So when a company says they're buying renewable energy, it doesn't automatically mean they're using renewable energy. In most cases, they're probably just buying RECs.

In Microsoft's case, the Bloomberg article noted that the company plans to spend $50 billion building new data centers around the world (including in India) between July 2023 and June 2024 to meet growing demand for its tech products.

Building a data center isn't just about buying computers. It means adding concrete to the neighborhood, including personnel, land acquisition, construction costs, and renovations. That $50 billion figure will likely grow over the next 12 months. During Microsoft's earnings call in April, CEO Satya Nadella said, “We've essentially been allocating capital over the last few years to be a leader in AI.”

It is now understandable why SBTi staff were so frustrated.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/energyguzzling-ai-has-knocked-google-and-microsoft-off-their-net-zero-paths-11720381140451.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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