Tech
Earthquake prediction clues excavated in strange, unstable and balanced rocks
Credit: Imperial College London / Caroline Brogan
Unstable and balanced rocks (PBR) are geological formations found around the world in which elongated rocks are unstable and balanced on pedestal rocks. They are formed as blocks preserved on cliffs or when soft rocks are eroded and leave hard rocks behind. They can also form when landslides and receding glaciers deposit them in strange locations.
Despite the delicate balance, many PBRs, such as Brimham Rocks in Yorkshire and Chiricahua National Monument in Arizona, have survived the quake for thousands of years. Therefore, they can tell us the upper limit of the quake sway that has occurred since they were first formed. If it is strong enough, it will cause them to be defeated.
Researchers at Imperial College London have embarked on a new method to improve the accuracy of major earthquake risk estimates by up to 49% by leveraging ancient geological data locked within the PBR in California.
The seismic hazard model estimates the likelihood of a future earthquake at a particular location. These not only help engineers decide where to build bridges, dams and buildings, and how sturdy they are, but also inform them of the price of earthquake insurance in high-risk areas.
The findings will be published today on AGU Advances.
Anna Rood, lead author of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Imperial, said: Please check and tell us the upper limit of past earthquake motions just by not falling. It can be used to provide unique and valuable data on the incidence of rare catastrophes. “
Current seismic hazard estimates are highly dependent on observations such as proximity to fault lines and how much seismic activity a region has had in the past. However, estimates of rare earthquakes that occurred between 10,000 and 1,000,000 years are very poor due to the lack of seismic data over those timescales and their reliance on subsequent rock assumptions. I’m sure.
Empire researchers count rare cosmic ray-generating atoms in PBR and digitally model the interaction between PBR and earthquakes to incorporate them into existing models to fine-tune seismic hazard verification. I created a method.
Credit: Imperial College London / Caroline Brogan
Lock clock
To take advantage of past seismology, researchers set out to determine PBR vulnerabilities (possible inversions due to ground shaking) and age near the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant on the California coast. ..
They use a technique called cosmic ray surface exposure dating, which counts the number of rare beryllium atoms formed in rocks by long-term exposure to cosmic rays, to determine how long PBR was present in its current formation. Did.
We then used 3D modeling software to digitally reproduce the PBR and calculate how much seismic motion it could withstand before it fell.
Next, we compared both age and vulnerability of PBR with current hazard estimates to increase the certainty of PBR.
They estimate that when the calculations are combined with existing models, the uncertainty of seismic hazard estimates at the site is reduced by 49%, and by removing the “worst scenario” estimates, it occurs once in 10,000 times. We have found that the average size of earthquakes is reduced. 27 percent years. They also found that PBR could be preserved in the landscape twice as long as previously thought.
They conclude that this new method reduces the amount of assumptions used in estimating and estimating historical seismic data for future risk estimates, and thus the uncertainty.
Dr. Dylan Rood of the Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Imperial College, co-author of the study, said: “We are bullying at the edge of breakthroughs in the science of earthquake prediction. Our” rock clock “technology has enormous savings potential. Widely used to test and update site-specific hazard estimates for earthquake-prone areas in coastal areas where seismic engineering costs and earthquake sources are inherently difficult to investigate offshore faults. You can see that there is. “
The team is currently using their technology to validate risk estimates in Southern California, one of the most dangerous and densely populated areas in the United States.
Anna said: “We are currently investigating PBR near major seismic faults such as the San Andreas Fault near Los Angeles, and identify whether the fault slip rate or the choice of ground sway equations distorts the results. We’re also looking at ways. The original hazard model. This will give scientists a better understanding of the big earthquake. ”
Unstable balance rocks suggest San Jacinto, San Andreas may have burst together More info: “Unstable balance rocks have improved seismic hazard uncertainty” AGU Advances doi.org/10.10.29/2020AV000182 Imperial College London offer
Quote: https: //phys.org/news/2020-10-earthquake-clues-unearthed-strange-precariously.html Strange Unstable Balanced Rocks Obtained on October 1, 2020 (2020) Clues for earthquake prediction excavated in October 1, 2014)
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