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“We are facing a scenario where the healthcare system either collapses completely or accepts serious restrictions.”




Family members living in the village of Meath in Ratoath could no longer wait for HSE.

Option B became even more attractive as they knew they were in close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid-19 and were anxious to wait for a call from public health. It was.

They called private inspection companies one by one, and for a fortune, ambulances arrived at their home and inspected everyone. Results came back within a few days. Some were negative and some were not.

“My son was in contact with a positive case and was told to receive a call from HSE contact tracing,” said a woman who spoke anonymously to Irish Independent.

“It didn’t come, so I called the number for a private test, and he went out at 1130 pm to do the test. Two days later, the HSE contact tracer called. It’s completely chaotic.

“In another family, a mother who tested positive for HSE is still waiting for a contact tracing call between her husband and daughter living together.”

Some chose the mobile test service, while other Ratoath locals went to drive-through private facilities. There, the express test uses the “ramp” detection method. It is not recognized by HSE’s Covid-19 diagnosis, and as a result, positive tests are not followed. According to locals, the surprising increase in the number of Covid cases in Latose has caused widespread anxiety and panic.

Some of the positive cases that have emerged do not participate in the public health system. Others are being tracked too slowly, and many haven’t been tracked at all yet.

An atmosphere of horror and distrust involved the community, parents separated their children from local schools, and a well-known company closed the door. This may be a microcosm of what is happening nationwide, as Tony Holohan admitted on Thursday night that the scale of the infection is now beyond the capabilities of all levels of resource-based contact tracing processes. is.

Comments made at a press conference by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) came after Dr. Holohan wrote a letter to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly recommending a national transition to a six-week level-5 limit. Two weeks after a similar recommendation, it was natural for UCC Professor Gerry Killeen.

“The numbers were too big except for level 5,” he said.

“I need to throw a fire blanket right now, and 6 weeks at level 5 isn’t enough. Based on the numbers, it will take longer.

“With these pathogens (Ebola, Thirds, etc.), there are limits to what you can do with contact tracing. Can be contained.

“Before contact tracing is actually started, we need to reduce them to a certain size. Due to all the limitations of our system, we can deal with what we are currently dealing with. There is no racing system in the world. “

On June 30, Ireland reported the lowest 14-day incidence of Covid-19 cases in Western Europe. According to Professor Killeen, who worked in Haiti during the outbreak of Zika and has extensive experience in blocking there, it all went downhill from there.

“Since late June, numbers have begun to skyrocket and their growth has been strong,” he said.

“The trail from summer has always taken us to today’s place. We took our foot off gas in June and didn’t finish the job. Cork was from zero to six weeks in June. Away, Donegal was Covid free. 2 weeks.

“Even if we entered the 40-day countdown, Donegal would have been declared covid-free in a month. We needed to get the virus to zero or close to it. At that time, the public health team contacted the tracer. Instead, contact a trained doctor and you would have been in a position to eliminate the new outbreak.

“Epidemiology calls this the sticky end. It’s hard to get there, but once you manage it, it’s much easier. That’s what you need to do after this level 5 blockade. Otherwise, you’re on a roller coaster. We spend a lot of it inside and outside the blockade. “

Antony Staines, a professor of DCU’s healthcare system, said the virus went out of control a month ago.

“We lost control around the first week of September,” he said. “Looking at Nphet’s own data and models produced by Philip Nolan, it shows a steady and continuous rise. It had been rising slowly since August, but began to rise fast in September and then in October. It keeps going at that pace until, if anything, it has risen faster in the last few days. Nphet’s model predicted that. “

The transition to Level 5 needs to be done without delay, says Staines.

“The government has been very good at helping so far. We need to prepare money to support long-term restrictions. If that means we have to borrow. Medical. We are facing a scenario where the system collapses completely or accepts serious restrictions. “

The focus is on hospitals and intensive care units where difficult decisions may have to be made.

“It’s the ultimate horror for public health professionals,” said Catherine Motherway, a consultant in intensive care medicine at the University of Limerick.

“Thankfully, that hasn’t happened, but no one is confident in the face of a pandemic. We’ve already seen what this can do for one of Italy’s more resource-rich healthcare systems. I have come.

“We have to accept that we can’t live like we used to. I don’t think people are fully accepting it.

“We will be winter, the nights will be dark and melancholy, but it may be necessary. If you want to meet carefully and safely at Christmas, this may be necessary now. It may be in return. not.”

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