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It’s too early to talk about which console is selling well — both Sony and Microsoft are shipping all consoles that can be manufactured and will take weeks — but the initial availability is both. It suggests that the global supply of the platform is limited.
In Japan, the PS5 has moved 118,085 units against the Xbox Series X 20,534. Those familiar with the long history of Xbox’s poor performance in Japan will find this not surprising. Microsoft consoles haven’t worked particularly well in Sony’s native market. What’s a little more surprising is that Sony’s PlayStation 4 launch has tripled the PlayStation 5 launch.
What these numbers mean is that both Sony and Microsoft are having a hard time putting their hardware in store. The reason I’m not sure if consoles are selling quickly is that all platforms, including the Wii U, have been in demand for at least a few weeks and are selling well. Bloomberg reports that Sony CFO Hiroki Totoki told investors in October that supply chain bottlenecks were hampering production and could continue to be delayed until March next year. ..
This is the same comment I heard from Microsoft. Microsoft is also not bullish on its ability to bring its products to market. Microsoft’s Tim Stuart recently said something very similar to investors.
I think the supply shortage will continue for the post-holiday quarter. Microsoft’s third quarter, calendar first quarter. And in the fourth quarter, the entire supply chain will continue to move at full speed for the months before the summer.
Stuart predicts that the Xbox shortage will not go away until spring, before summer, which is the same time frame that Sony predicted.
But that’s not all. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted a shortage of Nvidia Ampere cards by the fourth quarter, but the company hasn’t said anything about the expected situation until early next year. AMD’s Radeon 6800 and 6800XT are currently out of stock everywhere. The 5000 series CPU is thin even on the ground.
In short, welcome to the ultimate example of consumer electronics and retail hardware in 2020. Everyone is launching next-generation hardware here, but nothing is actually available for purchase.
It will be interesting to know where these problems and problems are occurring, and what parts of production are enduring repeatedly. Bot and scalper are certainly a problem, but that’s not why Sony has so few PlayStation 5s ready to ship in Japan compared to other locations. High demand explains why new consoles can’t be found on store shelves, but doesn’t explain why the company doesn’t seem to be able to ship them. Although TSMC’s 7nm production line is reported to be completely in short supply, not all over-the-counter products are manufactured by TSMC.
Our best guess is that the situation is the worst. The low yields of new parts are combined with the inevitable turmoil associated with pandemics and the fundamental changes in consumer entertainment habits that endure people being trapped almost internally each month. Now, on top of that nice hellstew, cassotte some bots and scalpers. The final result is a very 2020-style result. There should be lots of exciting new hardware available for sale, but it’s harder than getting it right now.
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