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Self-driving taxi to anti-cancer drug: Google Moonshot is a serious business

 


Google is Alphabet Inc in 2015. When renamed to, co-founder Larry Page revealed that one of the meanings of the new name was puns, such as “a bet on a return on investment that exceeds the benchmark.” This is better than just a monthly bid for Google’s financial reporting so-called “other bets” (a subsidiary working on projects ranging from self-driving cars to cancer treatment) to make the world a better place. It meant that there was business potential. -Average earnings.

The calculation of “other bets”, which absorbed about $ 3.2 billion in capital investment and reported an operating loss of about $ 24.3 billion since the name change, may just be in its infancy. After all, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. When Mark Shmulik, an analyst at the company, recently evaluated the Alphabet portion individually to see if the sum of these ratings would be greater than the current overall, he made an “other bet”. Suggested that it is worth it. $ 75 per share, or over $ 50 billion. This is 2.9% of the total rating of his parts. This is not bad for companies that provide 0.3% to 0.5% of Alphabet’s revenue on a quarterly basis.

However, more than half of its “other bets” ratings are from the self-driving taxi company Waymo LLC, which CEO John Krafcik resigned last month after it became clear that his promise to drive wasn’t fulfilled. It was from. As many tech optimists expected a few years ago. It was a time when some investors valued Waymo over $ 100 billion. That number has reportedly blended into about $ 30 billion. It’s still unclear how businesses can make money in the near future.

Moonshots of other alphabets are developing even more slowly. In the latest Alphabet earnings announcement, CEO Sundar Pichai mentioned only two of the “other bets”: biotechnology R & D companies Waymo and Calico. Calico and its partner AbbVie Inc. Announced earlier this year that the two molecules will enter Phase I clinical trials, according to Calico founder Arthur Levinson, “patience” and “patience” in the corporate approach. There was a warning that “

Alphabet’s “Other Bets” -even X, the “Moonshot Factory” that undertakes some of the finest projects like the kite-catching (now abandoned) effort-Xerox PARC, a highly innovative lab. Many inventions from the 1970s have failed to be commercialized by copier companies, such as graphical user interfaces and near-commercial versions of the mouse. In a well-known 1995 interview, Apple co-founder Steve Jobs summarized the reasons for the failure:

When you dominate the market, sales and marketing people end up running a company. Product people run out of company. Then companies forget what it means to make great products.TheĀ· [researchers] At Xerox PARC, the people who ran Xerox were called “toner heads.” They didn’t have a clue about the computer or what it could do.

As Google is part of the duopoly of Internet advertising and is close to a search monopoly, Google executives, or advertisers, may call them, but they are tempted to shake off ideas that have nothing to do with their lucrative core business. Maybe. Anti-cancer agent? Self-driving taxi? Electric kite for God? However, Alphabet treats Moonshot as a potential business from the beginning. Although relatively tolerant of trial and error, project founders are under pressure to find monetization opportunities and develop business models. You can look for “other bets” to look for ways to make money and look at new areas in the process. A good example is Alphabet’s healthcare subsidiary, Berilly, who took out insurance last year.

But Alphabet is still a big company, with inevitable bureaucracy on the one hand and excess resources on the other. Inefficiencies are peculiar to their chaotic spread and safe main source of income. It is not clear that Google’s support will give a decisive advantage to R & D projects. In other words, traditional venture funding (which also attracts some Google projects), or even the high price, couldn’t do much more. Profile Academic institution.

For example, one of the “other bets”, the UK-based artificial intelligence company DeepMind Technologies Ltd., has made significant advances in modeling the 3D shape of proteins using artificial intelligence. But are Alphabet’s resources more often used when submerged in it? Donations from Carnegie Mellon University, a world leader in artificial intelligence research, reached just over $ 2 billion last year, as measured in published papers. DeepMind lost about $ 1.2 billion in 2018 and 2019, according to the latest report submitted to the UK Companies House. In addition, in 2019, Google’s Irish subsidiary canceled DeepMind’s $ 1.5 billion debt. This is most likely caused by using the parent company’s cloud. Computing resources for training the model. Google also provided DeepMind with most of its revenue.

If Alphabet’s goal is ultimately to hunt down some new, non-existent markets to the former search market, treating the Moonshot project as a potential business and letting them think about products and business models at the same time. Probably the right approach. Even if only a few of them dominate their industry, Google may eventually stop earning 92.5% of its core revenue and 81% of its advertising revenue. However, most of the Alphabet Projects are in crowded areas such as autonomous driving, AI, and biotechnology, so even successful projects are unlikely to grow monopolistically. Google’s cloud business, which is not a moonshot but a side business, is powerful but not globally dominant.

On the other hand, if Alphabet’s ultimate goal is to make the world a better place and perpetuate its own place in it, the company should focus on innovation in the areas it knows best and controls. It may be good. Targeting ads, such as paying people a percentage of advertising revenue if they agree to offer, instead of spending tens of millions of dollars on lobbying to prevent regulators from cracking down on cumbersome data collection practices. More data for accurate targeting that can be invested in research of alternative ways to do. Instead of fighting content creators who want to pay for the materials surfaced by Google’s services, they not only loosen their purse strings under pressure from the nation-state, but also make happier and more symbiotic arrangements with media companies. You can consider it. Instead of paying huge fines in antitrust proceedings in Europe one after another, you can consider all accusations of exclusive abuse against them and look for creative compromises. Facebook Inc, another member of Advertising Duopoly. Similarly, Google can benefit from deliberate investments to build a low-predatory image in a market that is already successful, far beyond the founder’s early dreams.

Not being considered evil is important not only for public relations, but also for engineers and project managers. A small competitor, Brave Software Inc., has created a way for people to be rewarded for displaying ads, but only giants like Google have implemented such programs on a large scale to set new industry standards. I was able to change it. Helping rebuild local media is another good challenge for Google’s position advertising, search, and map readers. It may not be as attractive as finding a cure for cancer, but in honor of Google, others may be in a better position for cancer breakthroughs. That’s not the case with Internet content and advertising.

In other words, Alphabet may be underinvesting in the sustainability of a thriving key business, but ultimately making money, spinning off with high praise, or both. It can also overinvest in adventurous side businesses that are unlikely to be so important to the company. This is a moonshot that challenges Google’s “advertising head” with their territory.

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