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5 million people at stake: expert warns of earthquake in Istanbul
Nasi Goror, a geologist at Istanbul Technical University and a member of the Turkish Academy of Sciences issued a stark and violent warning on Sunday, saying a possible earthquake in Istanbul could put nearly 5 million people at risk, stressing the need to take precautions. It is taken.
Speaking after Friday’s Bingol earthquake shook eastern Turkey with a magnitude of 5.3, Gurur said a possible earthquake could hit the Kucukcekmece Dam, which is on the European side of Istanbul.
“There are 4 to 5 million people whose lives are at stake. I highly doubt that the Kucukcekmece Dam will withstand the earthquake properly.
The East Anatolian Fault Line starts from Karlıova at Bingöl and continues as far south as Adana. The North Anatolian Fault Line also starts from Karliova and continues to Istanbul. “The Karliova region is where the two fault lines meet,” Goror added.
Although the 5.3-magnitude earthquake hit this region, it was not specifically on the East Anatolian Fault Line. It happened on a fault line parallel to it,” he asserted, adding that the fault lines can “transfer pressure to each other” and can also trigger each other, indicating a danger to Istanbul, which lies on the North Anatolian Fault Line. .
Even “small earthquakes show we’re not prepared,” he said, adding that 4 to 5 million people live in unsafe buildings.
Our Minister of Environment and Urbanization says 200,000 buildings need transformation. If the building at risk has four floors – this is the minimum – and each floor has two apartments, then this is equal to eight apartments per building. If you multiply that number by 200,000, it equals 1.6 million apartments, and with four people per house, that means 4 to 5 million people are at stake.”
“Of course, not all of these 200,000 buildings would collapse in the event of an earthquake,” Gore concluded, but that still poses a significant risk.
A team from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality submitted a report to the Turkish Parliament in February regarding the fallout from a possible earthquake in the capital, revealing a catastrophic forecast.
The report was jointly prepared by the municipalities of Avcilar and Esenler district of Istanbul and submitted to the Parliamentary Committee on Earthquake Procedures. It revealed that 200,000 buildings will suffer medium or high level damage, which will likely affect about 4-5 million Istanbul residents.
Istanbul, with a population of over 15 million, is the most populous city in Turkey and is constantly under threat from earthquakes. Multiple studies show that the city will inevitably suffer one strong earthquake, and experts warn that it’s not a matter of “if” but “when.”
The municipality’s report stated that the number of structurally unsound buildings had increased significantly. While it quadrupled in Avcilar district, the number doubled in Silivri hinterland.
Istanbul was hit by a 5.8-magnitude earthquake in 2019, the largest in nearly two decades. Although the tremors were slight, they were enough to drive people into the streets, where memories of the 1999 earthquake are still vivid. Many spent a few nights outside before the aftershocks faded.
Turkey has suffered devastating earthquakes in the past, including the 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Golcuk in 1999. More than 17,000 people were killed in the greater region. The country is among the most seismically active regions in the world as it lies on several active fault lines, the most destructive of which is the North Anatolian Fault, the meeting point of the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates.
The Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning already has an ambitious nationwide project to improve construction and safety standards for 689,658 homes, shops and offices.
Over the past eight years, the ministry has evacuated or demolished 673,000 of those units, while work continues on the remaining buildings.
The government has allocated more than 15 billion Turkish liras ($1.71 billion) for “urban transformation” projects covering about 5 million people in more than 1.3 million housing units. The operation aims to provide safe homes to at least 45% of the population.
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