How likely is the Big One earthquake to hit the West Coast after the recent tremors in Los Angeles?

California is about 80 years behind “The Big One,” the type of massive earthquake that periodically rocks California as tectonic plates slide past each other along the 800-mile San Andreas Fault.

But recent earthquakes in California, including clusters of low-level tremors in Southern California in June and a “swarm” in April, do not appear to increase the chances of this disaster, which experts believe could kill 1,800 people and 200 Billion dollar. Bill when it finally hits.

Los Angeles experiences an average of five earthquakes annually with a scale between 3 and 4, which puts the most recent earthquakes within the normal range of magnitude and frequency.

Overall, the USGS says there is a 31 and 20 percent chance of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake, which is roughly one large case, occurring in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, respectively.

The last major earthquake occurred in 1906, as a 7.9-magnitude quake struck 300 miles off the fault, devastated large parts of San Francisco, and killed more than 3,000 people in the deadliest earthquake in U.S. history.

When Big One hits, it will be 44 times more powerful than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which killed 72 people, injured 9,000, and caused $200 billion in damage.

Predicting when earthquakes will occur remains difficult, Kimberly Plesniuk, a geologist at San Jose State University, told the Los Angeles Times in March.

“The San Andreas blunder is one of the best studied blunders in the world, and there’s still a lot we can do,” she said.

Last year, researchers concluded that a pair of major earthquakes in Southern California in 2019, with a score of 6.4 and 7.1, slightly increased the chances of a major earthquake, although the probability remains low, with a major earthquake probability of 1 percent approximately. San Andreas next year.

“What’s next is a really difficult problem for us,” seismologist Dr. Kenneth Hudnott told the New York Times after the study was released. “But that’s what everyone wants to know,” he added, “but just because we can create a plausible scenario doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.”

Some scholars have argued that even the 1 percent forecast was too much of a claim.

“The problem is that the uncertainties about all the numbers in this sequence are huge,” Seth Stein of Northwestern University told Science. “And you follow them all together.”

There’s no great way to know exactly when Big One might come, according to seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones.

“I’m surprised we haven’t got it yet – we’re on average 150 years between the events of San Andreas and 350 years in the far south,” she wrote on Twitter in May. “But we could easily go 50 again – or more. The time between big earthquakes seems to be Poissonian – meaning that the time since the last earthquake doesn’t matter.”

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