Injury mate in the face of earthquake fear

Nur-Sultan may be cold and windy, but at least earthquakes are not a problem.

It was the idea of ​​Andrei Krasilnikov when he moved to the capital from the commercial city of Almaty, surrounded by the mountains of Kazakhstan.

“It was a pity that I had to leave my hometown. There are beautiful mountains, but not here,” Klasernikov, an activist who opposes the rapid spread of tall buildings, told Eurasianet. “But Almaty is in a seismic zone and I want to live in peace, so I don’t have to worry about my family.”

As an example, Krasilnikov points to a recently announced project to build dozens of 17-storey apartments in a densely populated residential area of ​​Almaty.

“This kind of ghetto turns into a mass grave in the event of a strong earthquake, because rescuers cannot pass through the ruins,” activists said.

Fear is unfounded. Almaty is located in a region of high seismic activity. Mild tremors are fairly common. And seismologists expect the possibility of strong tremors during the next decade.

Predicting can be a dangerous task, but scientists point to precedents to support their theory. At the turn of the 20th century, the city, then known as Bernie, was hit by a series of devastating earthquakes that killed hundreds of people. The epicenter of the January 3, 1911 ambush earthquake was about 40 kilometers from the city, but it still kills 390 people and shreds visible ground to this day.

The account obtained from the archive by the news portal Ratel.kz describes all the shocking events.

“At the time of the disaster, people on the hills of the epicenter saw people fleeing their homes in the Aksai Valley, and in the next moment they disappeared with their homes.” The witness recalled.

Alla Sadikova, a leader at the Institute of Seismology in Almaty, identifies several disturbing factors that require further research.

“We need to be prepared for a terrible scenario,” Sadikova told Eurasianet. “Of course, we cannot predict earthquakes. All we can do is report clear signs of a possible natural disaster.”

Nothing can be done to prevent such a disaster, but the authorities can work to mitigate the consequences, or at least create an effective warning system.

“In Kazakhstan, seismic safety is clearly not a priority. There are not enough seismic stations. There are only 50 in the country and they have been abolished in the past 20 years,” says Sadykova.

Perhaps most disturbingly, employees at the Sadikova Institute, the most important institution of its kind in Kazakhstan, are currently on unpaid leave due to lack of funds.

The Institute of Seismology does not receive a certain amount of funding from the state, but instead needs to apply for government grants on a regular basis. Sadikova said even those donations are not enough to cover the cost.

In 2006, political analyst Dusim Satbaev wrote a book specifically dealing with the possible consequences of the Almaty earthquake. It is reported that experts are sounding the alarm regularly, but the authorities seem reluctant to take any measures.

“A strong earthquake in the city will have a huge impact on many victims, disruptions and the country’s economy as a whole,” Satbayev told Eurasianet. “But the authorities don’t seem to be concerned at all about this issue,” he said.

However, there may be slight improvements on the horizon.

Almaty Mayor Bakitjan Sagintayev said in an interview with a local TV station in May that the city had set up nine new seismic stations as part of a pilot warning system similar to the one used in Japan. advertiser.

“The plan is to deploy 28 additional seismic stations to establish an early warning system by 2023,” he said.

According to Sagintayev, the system alerts people through the app, scrambles for up to 40 seconds, and takes precautionary measures.

The Soviet authorities took seismic safety seriously for all the shortcomings and built Almaty buildings as a standard. Twelfth floor and above are not allowed. Well, almost nothing. The distinctive 25-storey Hotel Kazakhstan was completed in 1978 and built around a block of reinforced concrete, which was considered an innovative technology at the time.

Today’s builders do not consider blocks of up to 25 floors to be very special. The upper slopes of downtown Almaty are decorated with the 38-storey Esentai Tower, which houses offices, private apartments and the Ritz-Carlton.

“In Soviet times, stringent seismic requirements were met,” said activist Krasilnikov. “And now no one is watching the developers. Therefore, they do not care about basic safety rules. They are saving what they can do to achieve more.”

However, people in the industry consider such evaluations to be vigilant.

The Kazakh Institute of Building and Architecture, or the Russian acronym KazNIISA, claims that building standards have been tightened rather than relaxed since Soviet times. Yeraly Shokbarov, Director General of KazNIISA, stated that relevant laws in Kazakhstan comply with international standards and are also being designed in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine.

“Since independence, we have used powerful seismic-simulating vibratory machines to test and pass the stability of many buildings in earthquake-prone areas,” Shkparov told Eurasianet. Speak with pride. “In the former Soviet republic, this audit practice remains only in Kazakhstan.”

This may be true of high-end structures, but Almaty is not lacking in ugly buildings. The nine-story building, which was built in 2013-2014 as part of the government’s housing program, finally needed to be leveled after it turned out to be a slope.

“The doors do not fit into the frame due to the slope. In the room on the north side, the doors open normally,” said one of the residents, Elmira Alimzanova, who complained in 2019 before the demolition took place.

The story may be related to low-cost development, but Krasilnikov no longer trusted the elite complex.

“Slums are everywhere, with bent windows and walls. I know construction company workers steal cement for their needs.” Would this kind of building survive if there was a strong jolt? I don’t want to put him in danger.”

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