Clean energy production can reduce earthquake risk

In the months following the 7.1-magnitude July 5, 2019 earthquake in Ridgecrest, California, seismologists have recorded thousands of aftershocks in the area. Surprisingly, none of them have been seen in the Koso geothermal field, an area only about 10 kilometers from surface rifts caused by the main impact.

Now, Caltech researchers have discovered that processes related to geothermal energy production in Kozu over the past 30 years have reduced tension in the region, making the region less prone to earthquakes. These findings could point to ways to systematically eliminate high-risk seismic zones, while at the same time building a clean energy infrastructure.

The research was conducted in the laboratory of Jean-Philippe Avock, Earl C. Anthony Professor of Geology and Mechanical and Civil Engineering. A research paper describing the study was published in Nature on July 1.

Geothermal fields, such as the Koso region, are regions where subsurface temperatures are particularly high, for example, as a result of volcanic or tectonic activity. This heat can be used to generate clean energy that does not require burning fossil fuels. To harness this energy, water is pumped to the ground, where high temperatures heat the water; When the water is returned to the surface, this thermal energy is used to generate electricity.

Most importantly, during the development of the geothermal field, many small earthquakes (about 4 degrees) occur when water is pumped into it. This is generally seen as a concern; A number of geothermal projects have been abandoned due to “induced” earthquakes. However, in this new study, the researchers found that these small earthquakes plus the “silent” or seismic (which occurs without an earthquake) deformation caused by the injection of fluids actually relieve stress and thus reduce the risk of a larger earthquake in the area.

“Geothermal energy is clean energy, and we would like to get as much clean energy as possible,” Afwak says. “Induced earthquakes – which cause many small earthquakes – during the initial development of the geothermal field are seen as a hindrance to building more of this infrastructure. But our study shows that there is an actual benefit to this. You can imagine developing geothermal fields along a fault San Andreas, for example, where you can have clean energy and reduce the risk of a major earthquake.”

Led by Caltech postdoctoral scientist Kyungjae Im, the team sought to model what is happening below the surface of a geothermal field developed to produce energy. Using a technique called Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry, geologists have measured that the surface of the Kozu geothermal field has distorted and sunk by tens of centimeters since its development. I modeled this deformation and determined that the underground is thermally contracting due to the water being pumped into it.

Im concluded that this heat contraction relieved some of the tension in the Coso region and allowed the Earth to slide “silently” – that is, in a smooth, non-seismic manner. This explains why the Koso region did not experience significant aftershocks after the July 5, 2019 great earthquake: there was less stress underground because it was already eliminated by geothermal activity.

“Our study shows that by injecting cold water, you can actually suppress earthquakes down the road,” says Im. “But it is not without risks: when you start to develop the field, there is a risk that small induced earthquakes can turn into a large one. But in principle, over time, the risk of large earthquakes in the region is lower than if they had not developed field.You’re accelerating earthquakes for a short time, so your risk of getting large is temporarily higher.But if you look at the risk of being force 7 or 8 over a long period of time, more than 15 years or so, it’s going to be much lower. It’s part of our research goal to develop ways to accurately determine this effect. There will never be any danger, but our study shows that we should do more research into this method to reduce the likelihood of a major earthquake.”

“Thermal stress release and hydrocracking can release the accumulated stress and thus reduce future large earthquakes, but at the same time, there is still a risk of large earthquakes during stress release,” Im explains. “The Coso case is the desired example in that pressure release takes place without producing a major earthquake. This could be due to the nature of thermal destruction, which is slow, intense and localized compared to hydrocracking. But confirmation of this requires further research.”

The title of the paper is “Ridgecrest Aftershocks at Coso hampered by thermal destruction”. Kyungjae Im is the study’s first author. In addition to Im and Avouac, additional co-authors are Caltech postdoctoral scientist Elias Himmison and Derek Ellsworth of Penn State University. Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation through the Industry University Collaborative Research Center for Geomechanics and Geographic Hazard Mitigation and the Southern California Seismic Center.

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