Mid-year earthquake report – Times Standard

2021 is moving a lot faster than last year and the mid-point of the year amazed me. Earthquakes didn’t get much stress this year. Other disasters have dominated the headlines, and it’s good to have a back page story.

2021 was an below average year (so far) for earthquake and tsunami victims. But we have several noteworthy events – the first magnitude 8 earthquake in more than two years, the day three separate tsunamis were recorded, and one earthquake with more than 100 casualties. 6 or greater and eight equal or greater than size 7 were recorded in the first six months of the year, close to the average over the past two decades. These large earthquakes are grouped in the usual places, near plate boundaries and over 80% at the edge of the Pacific Ocean. There have been a few fatal exceptions: the deadly earthquakes in Greece, Pakistan, India, China and Congo, a reminder that earthquakes can happen anywhere, with 12 in 2021 causing deaths and 131 people so far. The deadliest attack occurred on January 14 on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi, killing 105 and injuring more than 3,300. The epicenter of the 6.2-magnitude earthquake was in West Sulawesi province, near the provincial capital Mamugo. Many buildings in the area were not constructed to withstand earthquakes, including hotels and hospitals. Two hospitals in West Sulawesi were severely damaged and several community health centers were destroyed.

Of the 12 earthquakes that caused at least one death, most had a magnitude of 5 seconds 6 seconds, and the smallest was 4.9 on the Richter scale. This, unfortunately, is a lesson we struggle to learn all over again every year. Medium-sized earthquakes can produce strong shaking. The difference between them and larger earthquakes is that they shake a smaller area and the shaking will not last long. When its 5 degree force hits densely populated areas of poor construction, such as many parts of Asia and Africa, this combination can be deadly.

March 4th was an exciting day. My phone notified me shortly after 5:30 a.m. I received text messages from the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) in Alaska. This text said that a magnitude 7.4 occurred off the North Island of New Zealand and that no tsunami was expected in California. I spent the next few hours learning what I could do about the earthquake. I have a number of New Zealand colleagues and they have been posting information on a tsunami bulletin board. A tsunami warning was issued in New Zealand and I wanted to know how well the evacuation was being implemented.

About four hours later my phone beeps with another notification – 7.4 in the Kermadec Islands north of New Zealand. Once again, the NTWC in Alaska has informed me that no tsunami is expected here. This earthquake was more than 600 miles north of the previous New Zealand earthquake. The Kermadec Islands occupy the central and southern part of the Tonga Trench – Kermadec, which is one of the most seismically active regions of the planet, where earthquakes of magnitude 7 occur almost every year. It was just a coincidence that it happened after the New Zealand earthquake. I noticed that a small tsunami was recorded.

Less than two hours later, another phone was notified of a tsunami – with a force of 8 degrees in Kermadec. This caught my attention. The first bulletin stated that earthquakes of this magnitude could generate tsunamis and that the risk to Alaska and the West Coast was under assessment. A few minutes later, the USGS upgraded the size to 8.1.

On average, an earthquake of magnitude 8 occurs approximately every year. It’s been nearly two years since I last (with 8.2 strength, August 19, 2019). M8s are large earthquakes, releasing more energy than the Tsar bomb in the Soviet Union, and are the largest nuclear device ever tested. Fortunately, Kermedecs is almost the best place on Earth for major earthquakes. The nearest populated areas are hundreds of miles away. The biggest concern is the possibility of a tsunami.

Dimension has its pros and cons. There are no populated areas which means that the infrastructure is not damaged or people are injured. But it also means that there are no instruments near the source to determine if a tsunami was generated quickly. Tsunami warning centers can run models based on the criteria of the seismic source. But without calibrating the models with actual data, it’s not very accurate. There was a tide gauge on Raul Island, a rugged volcanic island just 50 miles from the epicenter where New Zealand maintains remote-controlled instruments at the site. Unfortunately, the earthquake damaged the hardware and nothing was recorded.

Tsunamis caused by earthquakes are strongly directional, focusing energy perpendicular to the fault. The closest inhabited areas to Kermadecs are parallel to the fault direction – New Zealand to the south, Tonga, Fiji and Samoa to the north. This is where the tsunami’s energy is the weakest. It would take more than ten hours to get the data from the higher power regions.

During the next 13 hours, the two American Tsunami Centers will issue 34 bulletins. The reason for the large number of releases is due to the complexity of the tsunami warning system. Separate bulletins are issued to different countries, states and territories. It can become confusing even for those of us who understand how the system works. The PTWC issued a tsunami warning for American Samoa and a tsunami watch for Hawaii – both canceled when measurements and modeling confirmed that there was little tsunami energy generated in the north and northeast.

The earthquake triggered a tsunami that was recorded/observed at more than 50 tidal gauges throughout the central and southeastern Pacific, in Hawaii and at a number of locations along the western coast of the United States. The largest recorded capacity was half a meter (1.6 ft) in the Galapagos Islands. We also got a small tsunami signal – about six inches in Crescent City. It wasn’t big enough to cause any problems, but the signal lasted for more than a day and should be a reminder that a tsunami can last for a long time.

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