In the form of recovery

COVID-19 requires real driving. Winston Churchill’s words come to mind: “Sometimes it is not enough to do your best. You must do what is required.” In the unknown water to fight the coronavirus, this is what we need to remember.

We are now approaching the second stage of the battle, as the public health dimensions of the crisis fade into the background, and the economic impact begins to hit us. Manage this second stage as not doing your best enough. Measured projections and planning are required briefly, along with a more comprehensive and local communication policy. The challenge is enormous.

With Turkey entering the second stage, it is preparing to open shopping and barber centers next week. I expect this is not just about opening stores, but about convincing millions of people to become consumers again. The proverb says: “You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink.” If you allow an unattractive comparison, leadership is not only about controlling people physically, but also about their comfort. I fear that without this type of transparent and inclusive leadership, there is no V-shaped rebound.

So what is the economic recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic? This is the question everywhere. Reading the text of Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Blues ’remarks at the Ivy Business School on April 30th, it surprised me how he compared the COVID-19 pandemic to a natural disaster, such as an earthquake. He pointed out that economies usually recover quickly after earthquakes, and data supports this claim, and this is true. All this alluded to a V-shaped rebound. I object.

An earthquake, tsunami, or other natural disaster occurs and ends. Relief efforts usually begin immediately after the event. Usually there is no doubt about the event and how it happened, only the extent of the damage and the ability of relief efforts to save lives and property. Data show that all relief efforts with reconstruction lead to rapid recovery. But what we have here with COVID-19 is a process that has no acute and unpredictable endpoint in nature. We can imagine that with things like a correct serum test to determine immunity, we can control it. The vaccine can eventually lead to global immunity, but these possibilities are far and uncertain. For the time being, we must find a way to live with COVID-19, which means social distance in one form or another, which in turn means economic uncertainty.

So what does this recovery look like? V is very optimistic, U is a little less, and L is very pessimistic. I suggest getting out of the Latin alphabet. Did you see the letter B in Arabic? This is what I expect the recovery process to look like outside of this muddy hole. Arabic B is like U very elongated at the bottom, it reminds you.

The only parameter that helps us move from regular Arabic B to U is transparent, comprehensive and efficient driving, and we are unlikely to see that any time soon.

Economy ,

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