A shake in the risk profile

Large ramp along Te Barai Road, near Masterton, to close the road in September 2018. Photo/File

New research has emerged detailing the risk of a massive earthquake at the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone, which runs through Wairarapa, as residents prepare for the “big earthquake”.

A new study, led by Charlotte Beeser of Victoria University of Wellington, used prehistoric tsunami deposits at Grasmere Lake in Marlborough to gain insights into past earthquakes.

The project is a joint study between GNS Science, Durham University and VUW.

New data combined with tsunami modeling techniques show that the probability of an earthquake of at least a magnitude of 8 at the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone in the next 50 years is about 26 percent.

Dr. Carolyn Holden, a seismologist in Sismo City, said that in the event of a magnitude 8.9 earthquake, Wairarapa should expect to see large-scale landslides on steep slopes and liquefied in low, sandy areas.

“In this scenario, we would expect significant rises of three to four meters along the coast of South Wayaraba.”

It is not well recognized, said the East Coast Lab, a collaborative program that brings together scientists, emergency managers, experts and stakeholders across the East Coast to learn about subduction zone hazards.

Image of the Hikurangi subduction zone where the Pacific tectonic plate sinks beneath the Australian plate. Images / GNS flag

“The Hikurangi subduction zone is not well understood, however it is likely to be the largest source of earthquake and tsunami hazard in New Zealand.”

She said subduction zones were a kind of fault and are responsible for the largest and most powerful earthquakes and tsunamis in the world, such as Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011.

The East Coast Laboratory said it’s known that the Hikurangi subduction zone can produce large earthquakes and tsunamis — and that these events have occurred in the past.

“However, we don’t know how often these earthquakes tend to occur, nor do we know how large they are.”

Kate Clark of GNS Science co-authored the study and said that this is the first time that scientists have been able to work out the potential for major earthquakes in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone.

“Geological records like this are essential for assessing earthquake and tsunami risks, but are difficult to obtain at transitional plate boundaries like this,”

Evidence has shown that large earthquakes in the subduction zone can generate large tsunamis likely to affect the lower North Island and the upper South Island.

“This research helps us to better understand these large fault systems and the potential for fault tsunamis – and the more information we have, the better we can inform local communities how to prepare and be resilient,” Clark said.

Knowing more about the dangers of the Hikurangi Subduction Zone is essential, said VUW’s Dr. Jamie Howarth, who also co-authored the study.

“Knowing more about the risks is really good because it provides the opportunity to better prepare our communities and infrastructure which should now be a priority.”

Core samples of sediment layers in Lake Grasmere showed unusual shell layers, indicating sediments from several large-scale tsunamis, which were caused by large subduction earthquakes in the past 2000 years.

The lake lies on the boundary of the transition plate between the Marlborough fault system and the Hikurangi Subduction.

The subduction interface is located 25 km below the site, with active faults in close proximity.

“Geological records like this are necessary to assess earthquake and tsunami risks, but they are difficult to obtain at transition plate boundaries like these,” Bezer said.

“This is a rare opportunity to gain knowledge from past earthquakes and tsunami sequences – helping us better prepare for the future.”

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