University of Texas scientists, international team brings earthquake prediction modeling closer to reality

AUSTIN, Texas, August 9, 2021 – Earthquakes – like lightning – strike unexpectedly. However, Earth’s tectonic plates conceal subtle warnings that a major error may soon occur. Like forecasting a thunderstorm, knowing how to read warnings can help communities protect lives, infrastructure, and local economies.

For decades, scientists have struggled to give reliable predictions of hotspots for major earthquakes, but now, an international team of scientists led by the University of Texas at Austin has embarked on a new initiative to do just that.

“Physics-based prediction is what we’re trying to achieve,” said project leader Thorsten Becker, a professor at UT’s Jackson School of Geosciences.

The five-year project, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), will develop new computational tools, software, and educational materials focused on prediction modeling. The team will also train students, conduct workshops, and recruit new computational geologists by drawing on overlooked talent pools and reaching underserved communities.

The remains of a house lie in ruins in the aftermath of an 8.9-magnitude earthquake, which caused a devastating tsunami through this Japanese port city. Teams from the US, UK and China are on hand to help search for the missing residents.

The end goal: computer models that can predict the chances of an earthquake and its potential impact, similar to those used to forecast weather but over longer timescales.

Baker doesn’t expect to see “weather” predictions for earthquakes within five years, but he believes the idea is now technically feasible. Much of what remains is the discovery of the physics that govern earthquakes and their inherent uncertainties: key components in the prediction process.

University of Texas scientists will collaborate with researchers at universities and national laboratories working on three of the world’s earthquake hotspots: the US Pacific Northwest, New Zealand and Japan. All selected sites are subduction zones – places where tectonic plates meet. The differences between them will allow researchers to test their models and see what conditions to look for when deciding whether an earthquake is likely.

Subduction zones are important because they are the sites of the world’s most powerful earthquakes and can trigger dangerous tsunamis, such as the one that followed the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that killed nearly a quarter of a million people in 14 countries.

However, they are a challenge to study, because they are typically located offshore and are driven by deep geologic forces that take hundreds to millions of years to unfold, at scales ranging from fractions of an inch to thousands of miles. That’s why seismologists turn to computers to simulate faults and their tectonic settings. The new project will look for gaps in physics and find out what needs to be measured to make simulations more useful to forecasters.

Simulation of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. Scientists use computers to unravel the mechanics of tectonic faults, but can they be used to predict future earthquakes? Credit: Alice Gabriel

“It’s a bit like calculating the probability of a pandemic,” said Laura Wallace, a research scientist at the University of Texas Institute of Geophysics, based in New Zealand. “You can’t know when and where the next event will happen, but you can look at the factors that make it more likely and model how it might develop.”

Becker and Wallace on the project joined co-leaders Alice Gabriel, an earthquake physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and LMU in Munich, Germany, and Dana Thompson, the outreach coordinator at The Jackson School who will help recruit a new generation of computational geologists. The project involves scientists at The Jackson School, its Institute of Geophysics, the University of Texas’ Oden Institute for Engineering and Computational Sciences, and supercomputers at the Center for Advanced Computing in Texas.

Institutions collaborating on the $2.8 million project are UT Austin, University of California at San Diego, Indiana University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, ETH Zürich, Utrecht University, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, University of Tokyo Earthquake Research Institute, NIED, and GNS Science in New Zealand.

Click here to find out more.

Source: UT Austin

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos