Compare the Kīlauea earthquake swarm with previous activity

(BIVN) – Kluaea volcano has yet to erupt, and scientists recently switched the alert level from advisory to WATCH and back to ADVISORY, after a swarm of earthquakes began under the southern part of the caldera on August 23 and waned two days later.

Earthquake activity in the area has increased again since then, although the alert level – as of Friday morning – remains at Yellow/Advisor.

In this week’s Volcano Watch article, scientists from the US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory write about recent activity:

Late Monday afternoon, seismic activity rebounded at Kīlauea Summit. At about 1:30 a.m. GMT on Tuesday, this activity intensified, and it turned out that earthquakes and increased deformation indicated a new intrusion of magma. The earthquakes extended south from the Hālemaʻumaʻu crater, to the area south of the Kīlauea caldera.

“Intrusion” occurs when magma is injected into underground rock, and new intrusions could be the first indication of a potential eruption. Because seismic activity indicates that the intrusion was within 1-2 kilometers (0.6-1.2 mi) of the surface, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) increased the Kīlauea Volcanic Alert Level and flight color code from tips/observer yellow/orange at 5: 34 am on Tuesday.

Increased seismic rates occurred throughout the day on Tuesday, and summit tilt gauges showed ground motions in line with the continued growth of the intrusion. Earthquake activity and deformation peaked on Tuesday evening; Then they both fell dramatically, and the intrusion seemed to stop.

The upper panel shows clinometer data from the Sandhill Instrument (SDH), located within the southern caldera of Kīlauea. The line indicates that the instrument is tilted toward an azimuth of 300 degrees (NW) as the Earth swells in the region. Transverse rises occur due to the diminishing level of the tool bubble during earthquakes. The bottom panel is a hourly graph of the earthquakes in the Kīlauea summit region. Both show an increase in activity late Monday, August 23, and a subsequent slowdown the following Wednesday. USGS conspiracies.

In an effort to understand current events, volcanologists often look to the past. We are looking for “analog” events that are similar to what is happening and that will give us an idea of ​​what the future might hold. A very close analog to this week’s activity was the 2015 snooping.

The 2015 sequence of events began with the swelling of the shallow magma reservoir Halemaʻumaʻu, resulting in the flow of a Kīlauea summit lava lake onto the crater floor. The earthquakes then migrated south to the same area that has been active for the past few days. The episode lasted about 4 days and also ended with an intervention in the area south of the modern caldera scheme.

These two southern intrusions of the caldera (2015 and 2021) have strikingly similar patterns of seismicity and deformation, although the 2015 event started quite differently. Seismic and deformation patterns indicate that the location and direction of intrusions are also quite similar.

Map showing seismic activity under the southern part of the Kīlauea caldera, within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, from August 23, 2021, at noon until the same time on August 25, 2021. An earthquake swarm began in that area at approximately 4:30 PM HST on August 23 and continued until Morning of August 25, 2021. Nearly 500 earthquakes were detected during this swarm. The map shows the locations of the earthquakes, with earthquakes colorized by time of occurrence and strength (see key at the bottom of the figure). The charts above and below the map show earthquake depth below sea level (0) by longitude (bottom) and depth below sea level (0) by latitude (top), with corresponding latitude and longitude on the map. USGS map and plots.

The regional elevation patterns observed by satellite confirm that the center of intrusive activity in both cases is well south of the caldera boundary faults. A third, similar event was recorded in 2006, prior to the formation of a lava lake within Halemaʻumaʻu.

This area is famous for being the beginning of the path that magma follows to the lower regions of the southwestern rift zone of Kīlauea. Earthquakes have been used to track the progress of magma intrusions through this path and HVO scientists call this the “Seismic Southwest Fault Zone.”

Rock intrusions followed this path in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s, but only one of these events led to an eruption. In December 1974, an intrusion began to follow this path south, but it erupted as a series of short fissures with a total length of 5 km (3 miles) as it turned to the southwest.

The events of the caldera collapse in 2018 dramatically changed the surface landscape of the Colauya summit. However, it was not clear how much was altered from subsurface magma storage and plumbing systems. The fact that magma is being stormed and stored near the caldera shows that some of the magma connections have not changed due to the 2018 meltdown.

Similarities between the 2015 and 2021 breakouts suggest that at least some of the top links remain. This is further evidence that while our view of Kīlauea’s surface is entirely new, the volcano hasn’t changed much underground.

The magma storage system below Kīlauea Peak is clearly refilling and inflating as it recovers from the 2018 eruption. Events such as the recent summit eruption and this intrusion are expected signs that the system is re-pressurizing due to the continued introduction of magma. We expect to see continued intrusive and potential eruptive activity near the summit as magma reconnects with ancient pathways and storage areas.

On Thursday morning, the volcano alert level and flight color code at Kīlauea were changed again from Watch/Orange, back to Tips/Yellow as seismic activity and deformation returned to pre-intervention levels within the area. However, at the time of this writing on the evening of August 26th, seismic activity and ground deformation have resumed in the Southern Caldera of Colauya. This is probably only the first chapter in a much longer story!

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