Study explores the link between earthquakes, rains and food insecurity in Nepal

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pennsylvania – The effects of monsoons on food insecurity in Nepal vary with exposure to earthquakes, with areas that have experienced severe earthquakes and heavy rainfall likely to be more vulnerable to an inadequate supply of nutritious food.

That’s one of the conclusions of a study by Heather Rundle, assistant professor of rural sociology and demography at the Penn State College of Agricultural Sciences. She said the findings have implications for Nepal – one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world – and for countries around the world, given the frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change.

“While many studies have examined how individual natural disasters or adverse weather events affect crop production and food security, little is known about the effects of exposure to multiple events in close succession,” Randel said. “The knowledge gained from this study can serve as a platform for creating adaptation strategies that will improve global health and promote sustainable development.”

Randell, who started the study as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Maryland, explained that climate change increases the risk of many environmental hazards occurring within a short period of time. Taken together, these stresses, called compound events, present unique challenges, since the first risk may undermine the ability of a family or community to take on subsequent risks.

Nepal, a landlocked country in South Asia, suffers from high rates of poverty and food insecurity. 36 percent of Nepali children under the age of 5 suffer from chronic malnutrition, according to USAID statistics.

Randel noted that the country’s economy is highly dependent on agriculture, with monsoons – a climatic phenomenon that brings rain to the region between June and September – playing an important role in agricultural production. When the monsoon starts later than usual or when rainfall is lower than usual, agricultural production can be affected, affecting food security.

“With climate change, Nepal is expected to experience increased variability in monsoon precipitation, with increased frequency of rainfall above and below normal as well as heavy rain events,” she said. “These heavy rainfall events can also lead to flooding and landslides, which can lead to negative agricultural, health and economic impacts.”

Not only that, but Nepal is one of the most earthquake-prone regions in the world due to its proximity to two closely spaced tectonic plates: the India plate and the dominant Eurasian plate in the north. In April 2015, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck Gorka near Kathmandu, killing 9,000 people and injuring many more. More than 600,000 buildings were damaged.

Although the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes have nothing to do with climate change, earthquakes may interact with environmental hazards made more severe by climate change, such as heavy rainfall events, Randall noted.

“Recently, Haiti was hit by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake followed by Tropical Storm Grace, which hampered the rescue operation and flooded the earthquake-affected areas,” she said. “These types of events raise the question – how can we better plan for composite events to protect the most vulnerable?”

Working with Amir Sapkota, a professor of environmental epidemiology at the University of Maryland, Randell and a team of scientists examined data from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. This survey, which was distributed to women in about 11,000 households in 73 of 75 districts in the Nepal, Information on food security, geographic location and a range of variables at the household and community level.

This information was combined with earthquake intensity data from the USGS and seasonal rainfall data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model.

14 districts in Nepal suffered the most severe effects of the earthquake in terms of deaths, injuries and damage to infrastructure. Randall and the team hypothesised that these earthquake-affected households would be more vulnerable to drought conditions than households in unaffected areas.

Surprisingly, among households that experienced at least moderate earthquakes, more rainfall was positively associated with food insecurity, particularly in steep mountainous areas. Monsoon rains have caused landslides in areas destabilized by the earthquake, damaging roads, disrupting food aid distribution and destroying farmland and assets.

In areas minimally affected by the earthquake, lower rainfall was associated with increased food insecurity, likely due to lower agricultural productivity in drought conditions.

Randel said more research is needed on the social effects of compound environmental shocks. “By having a better understanding of how complex events affect human health and well-being, we can better identify the most vulnerable groups, and we will be able to help communities recover and build resilience more effectively,” she said.

The research, published in World Development, was contributed by Chengsheng Jiang, Research Assistant Professor, Institute of Applied Environmental Health, University of Maryland; Shen Zhongliang, Professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Maryland; Raghu Murtugod, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.

The National Science Foundation supported the study with its innovations in the Nexus of Food, Energy and Water Systems program.

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