Melbourne buildings warned, with more earthquakes expected

“The lockdown was absolute, I hesitate to use the word ‘God send’, but it was definitely a factor in avoiding injuries.”

No one was hurt when the bricks hit Chapel Street Photo: Eddie Jim

Minor damage was the worst along Chapel Street, where old buildings stand on loose sediments from the Yarra River amplifying the earthquake’s surface waves.

Sediments are generally stable but older, unsupported buildings on top of them may be at risk, when geological, engineering and architectural conditions are aligned.

Melbourne Building Code requires new commercial buildings and residential towers to be able to withstand an earthquake of magnitude between 6.5 and 7; But there are no rules for homes or buildings built before 1989.

“Anything that is not reinforced with masonry, brick, is very weak — and that is universally true,” said Paul Somerville, chief geoscientist at Risk Frontiers disaster loss modeller and co-author of the Natural Hazard Center modeling.

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“An event like the one we just experienced is really just a wake-up call to go back and look at things like that and actually understand what our earthquake risk is? And what are the risks associated with having these unsupported buildings?” said Dr. Duffy.

Many people think that Australia lies in the middle of its tectonic plate, and is largely immune to earthquakes, said Professor Brian Mendes, a member of the Australian Standards Committee on Earthquakes.

But the Australian plate is moving north, steadily cramming between other plates, gradually putting pressure on the country. This pressure builds up over time – before it is suddenly released when an error occurs.

“People think we are safe – we are not safe. We will see more severe earthquakes in the future,” Professor Mendes said.

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Dr. Duffy said that Victoria was able to experience an earthquake of magnitude 7, although that would be extremely rare; Other experts estimate the probability of a 6.0-magnitude earthquake hitting Melbourne at a rate of one in 1,000. Dr Duffy said authorities should prepare for this scenario and consider which buildings need to be strengthened and who will pay for it.

He said old buildings could be modified to withstand earthquakes, as was done in Christchurch.

In Melbourne, Flinders Street Station has undergone “seismic strengthening” during recent restoration work by Lovell Chen for Development Victoria.

Professor Mendes said tall buildings were in fact very resilient and tended to be much safer.

People should stay indoors and take cover under a table or door frame during an earthquake. Buildings are not likely to collapse and most injuries outside occur from falling debris.

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