Predicting earthquakes in Los Angeles? Lucy Jones offers insight after a mysterious website tweet alerted some Los Angeles residents

LOS ANGELES (CABC) – The warning about an alleged earthquake “likely” to hit Southern California earlier this week gained enough insight to alarm some residents of the area – before famed seismologist Lucy Jones took to Twitter and offered valuable insight into the What extent the forecasts from some self-described forecasters can be is questionable.

The ominous tweet from the Quakeprediction account, posted at 7:39 p.m. Tuesday, read: “15 hour warning: 6.7 to 7.2 earthquake likely in Los Angeles area – late on 09/28/2021 or 09 /29/2021 – (likely northwest of Los Angeles)”.

The Twitter account, which has about 45,700 followers, is connected to quakeprediction.com, which claims, “We’ve researched earthquake prediction since 2005,” adding, “We are not associated with the earthquake prediction site USGS.”

The tweet went on on Tuesday evening to receive more than 600 “likes” and nearly 400 retweets. According to Google Trends, searches for terms like “earthquake forecast” and “Los Angeles earthquake prediction” have increased.

And of course Wednesday came and went without a major earthquake hitting the area.

“If you’re asking whether or not an earthquake forecast is legitimate: look at the forecaster’s account,” Dr. Lucy Jones, one of the most respected seismologists in the United States, wrote on Twitter Wednesday afternoon. “How often have they published a prediction? (This must have been before the earthquake – don’t count post-quake cases.) How often did the earthquake actually happen?

“I haven’t seen a legit yet.”

If you are asking whether the earthquake prediction was correct or not: Look at the forecaster’s account. How many times did they post a prediction? (Must be before the earthquake – delays don’t count.) How many times has the earthquake actually occurred? I haven’t seen a legit yet.

– Dr. Lucy Jones (@DrLucyJones) Sep 29, 2021 Jones continues to define “post-conjecture” as “the claim of successful prediction after an earthquake.”

“Someone sent a fax predicting a major earthquake in Los Angeles next week to a different company every week. The company that got it was affected just before Northridge hit,” she recalled, referring to the 6.7 magnitude earthquake that hit San Fernando. Valley in 1994.

Jones also shared this baffling anecdote:

“The 1986 North Palm Springs M5.9 earthquake was the first major earthquake after my move to California,” she wrote on Twitter. “I watched a greater scientist, Tom Heaton, speak to the press two hours after the earthquake. When a reporter asked if the earthquake had been predicted, Tom calmly replied ‘Not yet.’ The best answer ever.”

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