Is the ACT at risk of an earthquake from Lake George Fault?

Several fault lines run under the ACT and the surrounding area. Photo: Geoscience Australia.

An earthquake rocked Victoria (ACT) recently – but is the metropolitan area safe from similar earthquakes, given that it lies on many known fault lines?

Locals in Canberra and surrounding areas felt the impact of a 5.8-magnitude earthquake 300km away in the Victoria Regional District in September.

It is considered the largest earthquake in that country since European settlement.

There are a few fault lines that run under the ACT and the region — but they are lines we don’t know about that experts say pose a greater earthquake hazard.

Read also: Tremors continue for two weeks after the earthquake in Victoria that shook Canberra

Earthquakes aren’t just caused by specific geological faults, says Dr Trevor Allen, chief seismologist at Geoscience Australia.

“There are likely to be cracks and fractures all over the rocks within the ACT,” he says.

“We know some of the bigger ones, but it’s entirely possible that a moderate to large-scale earthquake could happen to something we don’t know about.”

Dr. Allen says there are three major fault lines known in the ACT region.

The most important of these is the Lake George Fault, east of Canberra.

“This is actually a very big bug, about 80 km long,” he says.

“[It] It extends roughly from west of Goulburn to south of Queanbeyan.

The Lake George fault is the largest known fault in the ACT region. Photo: Nick-D.

The smaller Queanbeyan Fault runs just east of the town of NSW, passes through Kowen in the eastern part of the ACT and reaches Wamboin.

The Murrumbidgee Fault is located just west of Canberra, less than 5 km from Tuggeranong city

“This is probably more active than Lake George Fault,” says Dr. Allen.

However, when you specialize in earthquakes, main fault activity can be measured on a time scale of hundreds, thousands, if not millions of years.

“Large earthquakes on these faults are incredibly rare,” he says.

We don’t think Lake George Vault hosted a large area [7.0 magnitude] An earthquake a long time ago, maybe a million years or so.”

Aftershocks from last month’s earthquake continue in Victoria. Photo: Geoscience Australia.

While those big flaws aren’t likely to rock DC anytime soon, they’re probably not the only flaws we need to worry about.

“While we know that there are large faults in the region capable of causing earthquakes of magnitude 7.0, earthquakes that potentially damage Canberra and buildings around Canberra are more likely to occur in faults that we do not yet know about.

“It’s possible that earthquakes occur in unexpected areas.”

But that doesn’t mean we need to run or duck and cover just yet.

It just means that if an earthquake similar to the last Victorian earthquake occurs, it is more likely to come from a previously unknown fault than one we already know.

“In terms of what’s likely inside the ACT, we’re likely to see an earthquake like that [5.8] Maybe every few hundred to a few thousand years,” says Dr. Allen.

“They’re probably not as rare as those big 7.0 earthquakes in Lake George that can happen every few hundred thousand years, but they’re still relatively rare—much longer than our lifetimes.”

Also Read: Canberra Day Trips: Interesting Hidden Lake – Lake George

Generally, tremors of less than 2.5 degrees go unnoticed by the public, unless you are very close to the epicenter.

However, size is a logarithmic scale, and Dr. Allen says the effects and distances they feel grow rapidly.

“Which means that for each unit amount you increase, you actually increase the intensity of the ground shaking by a factor of 10,” he says.

“For example, if you were to go from a 3.0-magnitude earthquake to a 5.0-magnitude earthquake, that would mean 100 times stronger ground shaking.”

Researchers from Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University were studying the Lake George rift.

They found gravel at the bottom of the lake that matches samples found on land much higher to the west.

“The escarpment that makes up the lake has been lifted by about 250 meters in the past four million years,” says Dr. Allen.

“She’s really taking a break right now.”

Geoscience Australia tracks about 80 earthquakes annually across Australia. Photo: Geoscience Australia.

Analysts at Geoscience Australia are constantly monitoring the movements of the Earth around the world.

They identify and record about 80 earthquakes above 3.0 in Australia each year.

“We will define on average between one and three earthquakes per day.

“Most of them will be very small earthquakes…but nonetheless these earthquakes always happen.”

While the Victorian earthquake itself was rare, events of this magnitude are not uncommon.

“We see earthquakes of this scale every five to 10 years somewhere in Australia,” says Dr. Allen.

“Most of these events occur in central and western Australia and occur in much more remote areas.”

Research continues into the geological feature that caused the Victorian earthquake.

To learn more about recent earthquakes, visit Geoscience Australia.

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