Virginia, Race and Spending Act – Prepare for some political earthquakes

Robin Warner puts up pro-McAuliffe signs in Ashburn, Virginia, October 26, 2021 (Lea Millis/Reuters)

On the list today: Two political earthquakes are on our way. One is in Virginia, almost regardless of the winner, and the other is on Capitol Hill, where Democrats seem ready to spend about $3 trillion on priorities that aren’t Americans’ greatest worries right now. One liberal political analyst argues that the child-care provisions in the Better Rebuilding Legislation would be surprisingly counterproductive and make pre- and after-school child care unaffordable for most families.

Two political earthquakes are imminent

The first political earthquake about to rock our world will come Tuesday, in the Virginia governor’s race, as conventional wisdom is quickly shifting from “Will Terry McAuliffe blow this?” to “Will Glenn Yongkin win by a large margin?”

Last night, a Fox News poll suggested that momentum had completely reversed, and McAuliffe was now the next underdog:

Republican Glenn Yongkin led Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor’s race, less than a week before the election.

McAuliffe has 45 percent to Youngkin’s 53 percent in a new Fox News poll of Virginia’s potential voters. Yongkin’s eight-point advantage is outside the survey’s margin of sampling error.

That’s a big turnaround from two weeks ago, when McAuliffe was five, 51-46 percent ahead.

Then The Washington Examiner reported the results of an internal poll that also showed Yongkin’s lead:

An internal poll showed Republican governor candidate Glenn Yongkin leading former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe by four percentage points, indicating significant gains in a competitive race for Virginia’s governor.

The Republican Vice Governor’s Winsome Sears campaign poll conducted by co/Effective, and provided exclusively to the Washington Examiner, found Youngkin with 47% support among potential voters and McAuliffe with 43%. Third Party candidate Princess Blanding received 5 percent of the support, and another 5 percent were undecided.

If you want to exclude the second as an internal ballot, that’s fine. But nearly every other poll since mid-October has shown a tie or a lead of McAuliffe by one. And the way McAuliffe campaigns, he acts like he’s afraid he’s going to be late or tied up, so it seems likely that his polls are showing similar results.

You may have noticed that I’ve been writing about polls at a lower rate since the 2020 election; At the moment, it is not clear whether pollsters are accurately measuring who will vote. (You could argue that the full coverage of the South Carolina, North Carolina, and Maine Senate races in 2020 was shaped by largely inaccurate opinion polls that reduced support for Republican candidates in those races.)

There’s another important caveat for Republicans to keep in mind: In 2017, opinion polls showed Ralph Northham a modest lead — 3.3 percentage points on the RealClearPolitics average — and Northham won by nearly nine percentage points. So it is possible that the Democratic candidates will do much better than the final opinion polls suggest.

But that doesn’t seem to be the race in which McAuliffe is doing well. Former Democratic Governor Doug Wilder refused to endorse a candidate. McAuliffe was not a particularly well-liked governor when he was in office eight years ago, and he used his money and his name to beat three African-American rivals in the primaries. (One of them was the notorious Justin Fairfax, so McAuliffe isn’t all bad.) Usually, but not always, the party that lost the White House the previous year wins Virginia’s gubernatorial election, because the party’s out-of-power grassroots are angry and fired. While the grassroots of the ruling party tired and satisfied. (Here in Democratic-leaning Authenticity Woods in Fairfax County, it’s as if there were fewer McAuliffe Square signs than expected, and more Youngkin Square signs than usual, but that might be what I turned to.)

Yesterday afternoon, I tweeted, “If Youngkin wins, we’ll break it to death, but the really important part is that Terry McAuliffe is just a poor candidate who got on stage and undermined his campaign over and over again.” Some people have interpreted this as arguing that the issues are not important, and that’s not what I said at all. The point is that, similar to Hillary Clinton’s arrogant, arrogant, and unbearably straight demeanor when she denounced the “Basket of Unfortunate,” McAuliffe was able to express his views on major issues in a way that heightened antagonism with those who did not. t already agree with him.

“I don’t think parents should tell schools what they should teach,” McAuliffe said in one of his debates with Yongkin. (As Phil Klein has noted, that’s not really wrong. It’s what most Democrats think.)

McAuliffe described parental objections to critical race theory as a “conspiracy theory” and a “racist whistle for dogs”.

The vast majority of parents in Virginia and elsewhere are fine with schools that teach children about slavery, segregation, and the countless times America has not adhered to its principles and principles, particularly in matters of race, the ways we still don’t. We always live up to our ideals. (Ironically, school quality is one way we don’t live up to our ideal of equal opportunity!) But the vast majority of parents in Virginia and elsewhere are against teaching children that America is an essentially evil and racist place, or teaching children that whites among them are essentially evil and racist and that Blacks among them are doomed to be victims of systemic racism. If McAuliffe had been a wiser and shrewd candidate, he would have taken a more conciliatory approach—”It’s important that we teach children the truth of American history, but all this needs to be emphasized that we are all Americans, and we all have a place in the American story” or something. He could agree that parents do indeed have an important voice in their children’s education, and he could stress the need to make up for what was lost during the generally dysfunctional “distance learning” year. But McAuliffe sent his children to a private school that costs $30,000 a year, so any discussion of problems in VPS is entirely theoretical to him.

McAuliffe also asserted that Youngkin questioned the results of the 2020 presidential election, but repeatedly argued that the 2000 presidential election had been stolen and agreed that Stacey Abrams was the legitimate winner of the 2018 Georgia Senate race. Early in the Virginia race, Youngkin attempted to dodge The question of the 2020 election wasn’t always as straightforward as it should be, but he stated in September, “Joe Biden was legitimately elected and there was no major fraud in Virginia. The 2020 election.”

Assuming not all polls were out of reach, the range of possibilities ranged anywhere from a narrow McAuliffe victory to a surprisingly comfortable Yongkin victory, in a state where Biden beat Trump by 54 percent to 44 percent. And don’t be surprised if the narrow Democratic majorities in the state Senate and House of Delegates either narrow or revert to Republican control.

Even a McAuliffe victory by a narrow margin would signal to Democrats that they are in their deepest mid-term round of 2022 and might perform well about nine or 10 percentage points from where they ran in 2020. Meanwhile, across the Potomac River. . .

Huge spending bill that ignores our current economic problems

The second political earthquake that is about to shake our world is that sometime after Tuesday’s out-of-year elections, House and Senate Democrats will almost certainly pass a version of the $1.75 trillion “building back better” legislation and the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure dollar. Framework and dump nearly $3 trillion in new federal spending into an economy already dealing with dangerous inflation, after accumulating $6 trillion in new debt over the past two years.

There’s nothing to cheer about conservatives here, as Phil Klein explains. As the editors concluded, “While the proposal has been scaled back from what Democrats promised earlier in the year, in its current form, it is still large enough to be financially irresponsible and economically devastating.”

Perhaps most importantly, the legislation is also not what American voters are asking for right now. Ask Americans what they worry about today, especially in the field of economics, and they’ll likely mention rising food prices, high gas prices, high inflation, and all the supply chain problems that make it hard to find the products they’re used to buying. Perhaps, in the end, someone will mention infrastructure, traffic or road repairs.

Interestingly, I think one thing you won’t hear is, “I can’t find a job because no one is hiring.” The country has 10.4 million vacancies at the moment. Banners in corporate windows switched from “Help Needed” to “We’re Hiring!” “Please be patient because our staff is short.” However, Biden still touted his plan, saying it would “create millions of well-paying jobs.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claims that these massive spending bills will reduce inflation because the government will pay more for health care and childcare. But this sounds very much like the argument that more government-run financial assistance programs will make higher education more affordable. By making the government pick up the tab, it reduces or eliminates any pressure to lower prices. And Matt Bronnig, who is learning from the left for Democrats, shouts that the bill’s childcare provisions will backfire:

Under the Democratic Child Care Scheme, child care workers wages are intended to increase the wages that primary school teachers currently receive. The median child care worker currently earns $25,460 per year while the elementary school teacher currently earns $60,660 per year. Thus, this mandate could increase the pay of childcare workers by 138 percent. If we increase the salary cost from the CAP estimate above by 138 percent, the unsubsidized price of child care goes from $15,888 per year to $28,970, an increase of $13,082 per year. And that’s not the only thing the bill does that will increase the cost of care. . . .

Under this scenario, there would be many dual-income spouses who could not afford childcare if they both continued to work, but could afford childcare if one of them quit their job and thus bring their family’s income below the eligibility limit. Usually people who leave their jobs to take care of their children do so in order to save money that they have to spend on childcare. Under this plan, they have to quit their job in order to afford childcare!

For all the talk about the benefits of childcare as a boon for women’s participation in the workforce, this determination clearly pushes against it by making it nearly impossible for middle-income, dual-income couples to afford childcare for the first three years of the program.

If we didn’t have to live under it, that would be ridiculous; Democrats who set out to make preschool and after-school child care more affordable would both make the most absurd and likely motivate more women to choose to stay home.

This, combined with a possible stagnation in the future, points to an electorate that will be angry by the time of the mid-term elections in November 2022. There will only be one party that voters will blame.

Addendum: Facebook thinks they can make me start calling it “Meta”? Good luck and God bless you. Guys, I still call them the San Diego Chargers and they moved to LA after the 2016 season.

something to look at

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