Elections 2021 – a harbinger of the Republican Party earthquake in 2022? – Delco Times

This column has long believed that analysis immediately after the election leaves much to be desired, since rotations from both sides usually fail to provide an accurate picture of the new political landscape.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the recent election results and what we can expect next year.

Not so fast: Election night was clearly a resounding success for the Republicans. They have won critical races, and have been surprisingly competitive where the party has been faltering, all of which bodes well for the Republican Party in 2022. But party leaders and, more importantly, ordinary voters should guard against overconfidence that 22 will be a severe blow. . It’s true that Republicans have three things to prefer in the coming year: history (as the party not in the White House usually makes big gains in out-of-year elections), redistricting (the Republican party will get a number of congressional seats), and a center-right state that doesn’t It agrees with much of the Biden administration’s policies.

While the Republicans should be able to win the House fairly easily, controlling the Senate would be a much longer task, given the retirement of a number of popular Republican office holders (Senator Tommy, Portman). Republicans’ efforts to reclaim that chamber were dealt a heavy blow after prestigious New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu decided not to run for the crucial Senate seat in Granite State.

Bottom line: The year is an eternity in politics, and despite today’s political winds, anything can happen. The economy may rise very quickly. Gas prices and inflation may fall; Supply chain issues can disappear; Far-left legislation can falter. America may face an international crisis – a confrontation with China comes to mind – where President Biden takes a firm stand and has the support of a majority of Americans. While any of them are unlikely, they are all possible—a message that Republican leaders must heed so the party doesn’t rest on its laurels and miss a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Biggest earthquake: Most post-election attention focused on Virginia’s governor’s race, with Glenn Youngkin becoming the first Republican candidate to win statewide since 2009. It was a significant achievement for the newcomer, who outpaced former governor and prominent political official Terry. McAuliffe. But this is not a race in which Democrats should be the most shaken in their shoes.

That honor goes to Republican Jack Ciatarelli’s surprise, near-successful bid for New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. Why is this contest so important? Because Jersey has been and will be a solid blue state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than a million voters. By going up to President Biden by 16 points, its residents conclusively demonstrated their status as one of America’s most liberal bastions, making what happened on election night all the more remarkable. (An example of the progress of the Garden State, which this column points to (Chris Friend: Crowds of Youth on the Beach: New Jersey Gangs? – Delco Times) was when Governor Murphy signed a law effectively prohibiting police from arresting young men for their minors. Drinking and other offenses lead to chaos. in many Jersey cities).

While Virginia elected Republicans to governorship and the House of Delegates (which took control of that room from the Democrats), it wasn’t all that shocking. But on one night when Murphy, a populist progressive, was fighting for his political life against a conservative rival – and Republicans made major gains in the Democratic-controlled legislature – Democrats had every reason to worry before they entered next year’s contests.

Charming win: Just four years after setting a record running the state’s most expensive legislative race, New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney appears to have been beaten by lifelong truck driver Ed Doer, who ran into a governor Blue collar. value platform. Mr. Al-Durr spends a pittance compared to the Garden State’s second most powerful politician, yet his message resonates with an electorate weary of government inefficiency and wasteful spending. If this isn’t a gigantic flashing red light for a party that believes that the government – not the people – is best, then nothing is.

Most Wrong Roll: The losing side should always put in the best face to explain their defeats, but President Biden’s position was completely out of the equation. He thinks the Democrats lost because the party didn’t get it done — “people want us to get things done” — but he’s, for the most part, wrong.

Yes, the majority of Americans wanted the infrastructure bill, because repairing roads and rebuilding bridges crosses partisan lines. But even if this legislation had been passed before the election, odds are it wouldn’t have changed the results significantly. That’s because most Americans remain extremely wary about a brutal spending bill rooted in left-wing social and economic policies looming over the nation — legislation that will be paid for, one way or another, on the backs of the middle class. The American people may focus on latte and broadcast television most of the time, but they are not stupid. When push comes to shove, they always send an unmistakable message about what they don’t want, and this election was no exception.

It’s good for President Biden to remember that while he was clearly a bona fide winner last year, he didn’t “win” the 2020 election as much as Donald Trump. Like in 2016, it was a referendum: just as people said “no” to Hillary, so did they reject Mr. Trump for being…Donald Trump. Translation: Americans wanted change, but they didn’t want unchecked and irreversible socialism, which is exactly what the Biden administration advocates.

Trump’s toxic train: A lot has been said about keeping Virginia’s new governor, Donald Trump at arm’s length, and for good reason. Yes, the former president endorsed Mr. Yunkin in the primaries, but that was because Mr. Trump was involved, because he did not campaign within the state, nor did he appear with the candidate. In many areas, this strategy will become the model of choice: appease the base in the primaries with moderate Trump support, focus on domestic issues, compete against Washington, and turn away from Mr. Trump in the general election.

On the contrary, the lesson for Democrats is that in real life, most people don’t care about the bogeyman – no matter how despised he may be – once he leaves office. Instead, voters focus on what is there now: inflation, school curricula, gas prices, social engineering, spending and crime. In other words, running against Donald Trump for office only generates enthusiasm and does not motivate people to vote.

But make no mistake: In many parts of the country, Donald Trump remains a very powerful force, especially in the primaries. However, to effectively capture the Republican-leaning suburban women who are crucial to winning congressional districts and Senate races, many GOP members watched for Trump’s second move. If that offends the president and/or his hard-line base enough to sit down in 2022 in protest, the GOP’s gains will be greatly diminished. But if the Virginia model is correct, it could be a huge year for Republicans. Where that leaves Mr. Trump in 2024 is anyone’s guess.

A vote for a new voting method: Delaware County’s new voting system is, in a word, appalling. Having a verified written record is impressive, but voting can’t take five minutes or more — which it did for many, even though there were few voters at the polls. If it takes so long in an out-of-year election with a low turnout, what will the lines look like in a presidential year? Answer: Out the door and down the building, causing people to turn around and go home – the opposite of achieving a high voter turnout.

Even worse, poll workers help clear the ballot papers. A nice gesture, but these individuals can clearly see the voters’ choices – especially when the machine is spitting out the ballot paper again due to something being left blank. There must surely be a better way, for the integrity of the voter’s secrecy must always remain sacrosanct.

And the vote on this reform must be unanimous.

Chris Friend is a columnist and commentator whose column appears every Wednesday. He can be reached at [email protected] to follow him on Twitter @chrisfreind.

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