In Haiti, social and political instability, erratic rainfall and high prices are leading to the consequences of the crisis (IPC phase III) in many parts of the country. The depreciation of the gourde against the dollar, rising international food prices, and a heavy reliance on imported goods are negatively impacting household purchasing power as households attempt to recover from the August earthquake and Tropical Low Grace. In some areas such as Camp Perrin, Maniche and Pestel, food assistance will enable poor families to meet their nutritional needs and thus will be under stress! (IPC Phase 2!).
In and around Port-au-Prince, criminal activity, kidnappings for ransom and fuel shortages have crippled economic activity and disrupted transportation, warehouses, businesses and schools. Meanwhile, in rural areas, the annual autumn season is expected to be below average due to erratic rainfall and residual effects of dual natural disasters on agricultural production.
In Central America, broad economic recovery and seasonal improvements in food availability and access across the region improve stress outcomes (IPC phase II) for most poor households. However, the outcome of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) will prevail in the Guatemala and Honduran Dry Corridor, Eastern Honduras, Guatemala Altiplano, and areas affected by Hurricanes Ita and Iota due to primary crop losses for smallholder farmers, lower coffee-related income, and the inability to restore Livelihoods in the aftermath of multiple shocks in recent years.
During this forecast period, poor rural households are likely to increase the proportion of income that will be devoted to non-food needs due to increased prices for fuel, utilities, and transportation; Debt accumulated from the unusually long lean season in 2021; and restore livelihoods in agriculture, tourism and the informal sectors. Higher fuel and transportation costs are likely to reduce potential income and affect food prices, resulting in lower household purchasing power and an early start to the 2022 lean season for some households.
Markets are likely to remain well supplied and operate normally due to adequate domestic production and regional imports. The average forecast of cumulative rainfall and the resulting average postrera and postrera tardía/apante harvest nationwide are expected to influence a seasonal decrease in staple food prices. However, lower-than-average rainfall in northeastern Honduras is likely to cause crop losses and lower-than-average yields in the post-land period for smallholder farmers.
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