Do earthquakes in central Idaho cause the eruption of the Yellowstone volcano? | Sweetened

Zack Lifton Idaho Capital Sun

Seismic activity has increased in central Idaho over the past 20 months. These earthquakes are aftershocks of a magnitude 6.5 earthquake that occurred on March 31, 2020 – a classic example of a series of aftershocks.

A 6.5-magnitude earthquake near Stanley, Idaho, on March 31, 2020, was the second largest ever recorded in Idaho. Fortunately, it did very little damage, but its shaking was felt all over the area. Since that initial large earthquake, known as the main shock, there have been more than 4,300 aftershocks in the same area. This rise in seismic activity alarmed some people.

A common question that has arisen after many earthquakes in the western United States is: “Will this earthquake lead to an eruption of a volcano in Yellowstone?” or, “Are these earthquakes related to Yellowstone?” The simple answer is “no,” but let’s take a closer look at what’s happening in central Idaho and whether it has anything to do with volcanic activity in Yellowstone.

Aftershocks are a natural, predictable phenomenon after tectonic earthquakes that occur when the Earth’s crust moves through itself along fractures called faults. Usually this movement occurs very quickly as the stored tectonic force is released. The energy from the fault’s motion is converted into seismic waves that radiate outward from the rupture. Faults only rupture with a length of a few tens to hundreds of kilometers at a time. The length of the Stanley earthquake rupture was about 12 miles. The rift system is part of the Basin and Range County in the western USA, which extends due to tectonic activity and has no direct relationship to the magmatic system below Yellowstone.

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After an earthquake, the crust around the ruptured fault will undergo significant stress changes. An earthquake will reduce stress in some areas of the crust but increase stress in others. As the crust adapts to the new stress condition, it produces many smaller earthquakes – aftershocks – in the area around the main shock. Seismologists have discovered many interesting patterns in aftershocks after observing them around the world for more than 100 years. First, the number of aftershocks can be expected depending on the size of the main shock. Aftershocks are very abundant immediately after the main shock, and the number decreases over time after the expected rate of dissolution. That’s why scientists from Boise State University, the Idaho Geological Survey and the US Geological Survey scrambled to deploy dozens of sensors into the Stanley earthquake zone as fast as they could after M6.5 — because aftershocks multiply right after the main shock but diminish over time.

This regional map of southeastern Idaho shows the relative location of Yellowstone National Park and the aftershocks of the Stanley earthquake. Yellowstone National Park (highlighted in yellow) is located at least 275 kilometers from the 2020 Mw6.5 Stanley earthquake. There are several active faults (in red) between the Stanley earthquake and the Yellowstone caldera.

Map provided by USGS

Second, the magnitude of the aftershocks can be predicted. In general, the largest aftershock is about 1.2 degrees in increments smaller than the main tremor. For the Mw6.5 Stanley earthquake, we would expect the largest aftershock to be no larger than about Mw5.3. To date, the largest follower monitored was Mw4.8 which occurred less than an hour after the main shock. An important exception to these patterns is that occasional earthquakes such as the Mw6.5 Stanley event are tremors of an earthquake of similar size or greater. For example, two moderate earthquakes (~Mw6.1 and ~Mw6.0) occurred in the Stanley region a few months apart in 1944 and 1945. Unfortunately, there is no way to know whether a particular earthquake is a major shock or a precursor until after Truth.

Third, aftershocks can last for tens or even hundreds of years, depending on the size of the main shock. For example, in eastern Idaho, we are still recording the aftershocks of the 1983 Mw6.9 Borah Peak earthquake, nearly 40 years later. The aftershocks, even deformation, continue with the 1959 Lake Hepgen Mw7.3 earthquake, just west of Yellowstone! The current seismic activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the eastern central United States is associated with a pair of massive earthquakes that occurred there in 1811 and 1812.

Is all this seismic activity in central Idaho affecting the Yellowstone volcanic field? Not in any way.

Large, distant earthquakes can cause changes to geysers and hot springs within Yellowstone because the vibration fractures the fragile subsurface plumbing systems for hot water. However, significant tectonic stresses do not travel far. Post-seismic stress from the main shock and aftershocks from the faults extend to about 1-2 fault lengths away from the main fault (20-40 km, or 12-24 miles, in the case of the Stanley earthquake). The closest part of the Yellowstone Caldera is located 275 kilometers (about 110 miles) from Stanley’s Main Choc. Furthermore, there are at least five other active faults between the Stanley Earthquake and Yellowstone that would potentially rupture if any such significant pressure were transferred.

Much larger and closer earthquakes, such as the 1959 Lake Hepgen Mw7.3 earthquake, have occurred without causing any known volcanic activity in Yellowstone (although this earthquake resulted in numerous changes to the hot springs and hot spring systems).

Hopefully this has shed some light on what’s going on in central Idaho in terms of all the small earthquakes that’s happened in the past year and a half — why they’re a normal, natural process, and why distant earthquakes won’t affect Yellowstone. Next time a major earthquake occurs anywhere in the world, watch the aftershock sequence and see if you can identify the common patterns of these sequences.

Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles is a weekly column written by scientists and collaborators at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory for the Idaho Capital Sun’s sister publication, The Daily Montan. This week’s contribution is from Zach Lifton, a geologist with the Idaho Geological Survey.

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