University of Washington seismologists raise concerns about the ShakeAlert earthquake warning system

Seismologists are concerned that the earthquake early warning system may not be able to properly send notifications that the shaking is heading to certain areas.

Seismologists at the University of Washington worry that major population centers like Seattle and Tacoma may not receive timely warnings that a tremor is coming, depending on where a magnitude nine earthquake begins along the Pacific Northwest Coast.

Renate Hartog, Network Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and graduate student Mika Thompson have new recommendations based on their research. They ran about 30 scenarios where, during the worst kind of earthquake to hit the Northwest, if the level of the new ShakeAlert system remained too high to avoid annoying notifications of smaller, harmless earthquakes, the system might not be able to properly send alerts that the shaking is heading to certain areas, in Some cases even after the vibration has already reached those areas. They recommend setting the equivalent of vibration to detect smaller earthquakes of less than three degrees.

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The Cascadia subduction zone is a massive seismic fault extending hundreds of miles off the northwest coast. It begins off Cape Mendocino, California, runs north through Oregon and Washington, and then ends off the coast of the Canadian island of Vancouver.

While most people think earthquakes and seismic centers are coming from a compacted area, scientists expect the Cascadia Subduction Zone to open up and progress like a slab shredding, a massive earthquake lasting about five minutes. It can start anywhere along the fault, starting at one end or the other or even starting in the middle and spreading in two directions.

Hartog King 5 demonstrated one scenario where the earthquake begins west of Eugene, Oregon, and results in an earthquake that the system initially did not read as large enough to generate shaking in population centers located to the north.

“Because this rupture takes so long to develop, the system doesn’t realize it’s a really large earthquake soon enough to give a warning to Seattle,” Hartog said.

An academic paper on the topic is expected to be presented next week at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

UW was part of the development of ShakeAlert. However, the system started in Southern California where there is no subduction zone. While California experiences more frequent and major damaging earthquakes, a large portion of the state is subject to benign and smaller earthquake events, which means that the ShakeAlert level is set higher to avoid annoying alerts.

The Cascadia Subduction was most recently shaken for nearly 322 years in the 1700s.

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