opinion | How Hispanics became swing voters

While this shift was taking place, Democrats were moving to the left on most fronts, initially following public opinion (on same-sex marriage, for example) but then arguably overtaking it. In terms of economic policy, what is considered central to Joe Manchin today would have put him to the left of Barack Obama in 2010; On cultural and racial issues, the radicalization of white Democrats pushed them to the left of many Hispanic voters; On social issues, the kind of anti-abortion Democrats that once enjoyed a balance of power in the House are mostly extinct.

Then Trump’s rise in 2016 suspended Republicans’ commitment to austerity, entitlement cuts and other features of his Tea Party-era agenda. That didn’t help Republicans make gains with Hispanics in 2016 because Trumpian bigotry was front and center — although careful observers noted that he did no worse than Romney in 2012.

But the subsequent strength of Trump’s economy, the marginalization of his party’s deficit hawks and his administration’s willingness to spend money in the face of the pandemic have all created an opportunity for Republicans to portray themselves as pro-capitalist moderates and to portray the shifting left. Bernie Sanders influenced Democrats as socialists. This framework was effective – the apparent strength of the charge of “socialism” is discussed in the Ekes Research Report – and much more to the Republican Party’s favour than the clash between the hard-line breakers of government and the moderate liberals of the welfare state, which the partisans were doing so often emerged in the Obama era. .

Its emerging opportunity with Hispanic voters, the GOP’s biggest opportunity crystallizes right now — one that’s clear enough that a party that was really moderate in the economy, Trumpianly populist without being too toxic, could claim a lot of swing voters, and all That’s without taking the sweeping steps to the left on issues like immigration that Republicans urged 10 or 15 years ago.

The question, as always, is to what extent the donors, activists, and voters of the party wish to be economically moderate or want to be non-toxic; I still think the answer is “not enough”.

Likewise, challenging Hispanic Democrats removes their larger political problem: how to recreate a version of their early Obama-era messaging, which offered moderate liberalism that most effectively appealed to working-class voters of all races, in an entirely different social and economic environment. Landscape, in a party with a more powerful and demanding progressive pavilion.

One way or another, this adaptation will be fraught and painful. But this is the moment Democrats need to do so — when Hispanic realignment is still more hypothetical than real, still more visible in opinion polls than electoral results, and still harbinger of epic political defeat rather than the same.

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