New USGS model shows potential for earthquake hazards in Hawaii

Webcam image file from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Hawaii is a seismically active state, with thousands of earthquakes recorded each year by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

Destructive ground shaking has occurred in Hawaii for decades, with two magnitude 6.7 earthquakes in 2006 and 2018. This year, more than 1,300 people felt a 5.2 magnitude earthquake on July 5 and a magnitude 6.2 earthquake was felt on October 10. More than 3,500 people.

Earthquakes are often associated with volcanic activity. Monitoring current volcanic activity – including the eruption of Kīlauea volcano that began on September 29 – is important because it could lead to major earthquakes.

An updated USGS Earth-shaking model, published online in the journal Earthquake Spectra, shows a 90% chance that 345,000 people on the islands of Hawaii and Maui will be exposed to harmful levels of vibration over the next 100 years.

A lower but significant chance of shaking damage is expected across O’ahu; In the southeastern part of the island near Honolulu, there is a greater than 50% chance of shaking occurring during this period. Vibration levels on the southern islands are comparable to expected vibration levels across parts of the California coast.

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“The previous hazard model was developed more than 20 years ago, and since that time we have seen many large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; we have collected deformation, soil, and strong motion data that can be used to improve these forecasts,” said Mark Petersen, a research geophysicist at the USGS. US Geological Survey and lead author of the publication.

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“We have collaborated with scientists and engineers across Hawaii and the rest of the United States to build these models. The new seismic hazard maps can be used to update building codes and other planning documents, which will improve seismic safety across Hawaii.”

The map and publication features new earthquake catalogs, activity assessments on active faults using geological and geodetic (GPS) measurements, and robust seismic data assessments to determine ground shaking levels expected from earthquakes in the Hawaiian Islands.

Earth shaking is expected to be higher near the active volcanoes of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa in the southern part of the island of Hawaii. Here magmatic activity pushes the crust outward toward the ocean along a roughly horizontal fault located about 6 miles below the surface.

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Major earthquakes occurred in this region in 1868, 1975, 2018, and 2021. The 2018 earthquake was followed by a volcanic chain that included several seismic avalanches of the Colauya Crater floor. This provided data that helped determine the levels of vibration predicted by the model.

“Repeated eruptions of the volcanic caldera may also have caused the devastating ground shaking during the 2018 eruption, so a new model was developed to assess this risk,” Petersen said.

While seismic activity remains high today, it appears to have decreased compared to the previous century, which could be related to lower volcanic activity at Mauna Loa. Differences in earthquake activity are taken into account in the new models with earthquake activity expected to return to previous levels or continue at the current level.

Expected levels of vibration on islands northwest of Maui are lower, and destructive earthquakes are less common because this area is far from the source of magma currently located below the island of Hawaii. Earthquakes in this region result from crustal bending due to the weight of the overlying volcanoes and from nearby oceanic fault zones.

Despite less frequent seismic activity and a lower chance of harmful vibrations, earthquakes on the northern island of Hawaii and on Maui, Lani, Molucca, Oaha, Kauai, and Niihau are still possible and can occur at depths ranging from near the surface to 25 miles.

A deep earthquake occurred in 2006 at a depth of about 18 miles and was strongly felt in the northern part of the island of Hawaii and on Maui, causing extensive damage and loss. Other deep earthquakes occurred in 1938 near Maui, 1929 near Hualale, and 1973 near Homome.

A major earthquake in 1871 near Lāna’i is believed to have ruptured an oceanic fault zone, and a 1948 earthquake near Oahu caused minor damage in Honolulu. These earthquakes indicate a minimal but significant danger to the northwestern part of the Hawaiian island chain.

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