Lessons not yet learned | Nepali Times

Earthquakes are inevitable in Nepal. It is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. When was 2:28 pm on January 15, 1934. It was 11:56 am on April 25, 2015. There is certainly another tragic date ahead.

But the Nepalese have a short memory. As long as the aftershocks shocked us, we were reminded of the atrocities. But seven years into 2015, the fear has evaporated.

This is not a panic to promote panic or cry. It’s a fact: every part of the central Himalayas experiences a massive earthquake of more than magnitude 8 every 500 years or so, and an earthquake of moderate intensity every 100 years.

The 2015 disaster wasn’t a major one, it was the 1934 disaster. However, they both released some of the tectonic tension building up below us. What worries Himalayan seismologists is that there hasn’t been a major earthquake in western Nepal in the past 500 years. The layers of rock beneath them extend to the breaking point.

Experts tell us that if an 8-meter earthquake hits this seismic gap between Pokhara and Dadelora, it will shake Kathmandu as well and it will be more damaging than 2015.

The 7.8 million earthquake seven years ago was similar to the 7.7 million earthquake in Gujarat in 2001, and the 7.6 million earthquake in 2005 in Kashmir. In 2015, Nepal experienced more physical damage, but India and Pakistan casualties are much higher. One of the reasons is that we were lucky that April 25, 2015 was a Saturday, and the students weren’t in the classroom.

To celebrate National Earthquake Safety Day on January 15, we recap the past seven years. There is some good news: more than 80% of the reconstruction is complete. The recovery in Nepal has been smoother than in other developing countries that have been hit by major disasters.

Despite initial delays due to political unrest and blockade, reconstruction took place in most sectors in 2016. Today, health facilities and heritage sites are only delayed when they are 65% complete. Most of the reconstructed homes follow national earthquake-resistance guidelines because builders have been trained, and there has been monitoring before grants are disbursed in installments.

However, the reconstruction in Kathmandu and other cities did not even exceed 60%, and it could take another five years. The reconstruction grant of 300,000 rupees was not enough for families to rebuild their homes in urban areas. What is even more alarming is that almost everything that has been rebuilt in the Kathmandu Valley is in violation of building codes and permits.

Gongapo district saw 160 deaths in 2015, most of them crushed under illegally built concrete structures. Most of these high-rises were reconstructed using the same flawed methods.

With the exception of Gongabu, most of the concrete structures survived the 2015 earthquake in Kathmandu. This reinforced the general misconception that cement homes, no matter how they were built, are stronger than brick and mortar homes.

However, seismologists say that if the tremors in 2015 were only a few seconds longer and had a slightly higher magnitude, many of the concrete buildings in Kathmandu would have collapsed as well. They are unlikely to be spared for the next big stage.

Seven years after the earthquake, things are back to normal. In fact, Kathmandu is now more dangerous because it is more overcrowded, and there are more multi-storey blocks. Earthquake awareness clearly hasn’t translated into safer building – we’ve forgotten that earthquakes don’t kill people, and poorly built structures do.

Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Seismic Technology – Nepal (NSET) tells us that building codes need to be strictly enforced through strict control mechanisms. Municipalities should be stricter with building permits.

Next, builders and formwork workers need to develop their skills in earthquake-resistant construction technology. Security personnel now need training in search and rescue under collapsed concrete structures.

Shrestha says schools, hospitals and public buildings need urgent modernization. Several schools have helped NSET modernize withstand the 2015 earthquake, and this model needs to be replicated across western Nepal.

Nepal’s cities are losing open spaces, which are considered refuges in the wake of future earthquakes. Kathmandu must protect the remaining open spaces, and these efforts must be increased not only for earthquake safety but also to restore the city’s lungs.

Preparedness means life or death for all Nepalese, not just those who live in the seismic gap in the western part of the country. This should be the main message on National Earthquake Safety Day.

Earthquakes are out of our control, but we can make ourselves safer when they happen.

Sonia Awali

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