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New forecasts show that Illinois could lose 550,000 jobs, $ 76 billion in economic output due to COVID-19

 


SPRINGFIELD, IL (WSIL) – Researchers from the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs say the state may lose 550,000 jobs this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report’s authors say that 40% of direct losses will be concentrated in the sectors of trade, transport, business, entertainment and hospitality. They expect citizens and businesses to lose more than $ 28.5 billion in income, along with $ 76 billion in economic output for goods and services from Illinois. Geoffrey Hewings compares the long-term effects of the epidemic with the effects of floods or earthquakes.

“What we have here is an event where the aftershocks are unknown. What we are seeing is a potential increase because the nature of this disease and the process is still being studied and is still being evaluated,” Hewings said.

The Honorary Regional Economic Director says it has been interesting to analyze the economic downturn over the past ten weeks. Researchers are trying to compare this situation to the Great Recession. However, Hewings says the financial losses of the epidemic are closer compared to the economy after Hurricane Katrina.

“Within two weeks, a third of the residents of New Orleans left, and this is a really painful shift in the economy. I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

Note that patterns usually fluctuate around five or six percent a month. “Suddenly, you have this massive drop. The same thing happened here with unemployment claims due to COVID-19.”

back to work

The staff says the main driver of recovery is the number of comfortable people returning to their workplaces. Hoywings says that Illinois residents may also see a high risk when going out with friends or gathering for sporting events.

“How comfortable are you to take a subway or a bus ride? How comfortable are people on a plane or going out to eat?” Asked Hoywings.

He says that these questions from the demand side of the equation are unique to this recession. Hewings notes that it’s not getting easier on the supply side either.

“Can a restaurant survive if its capacity is limited to 25 or 50%? The answer is for many restaurants,” he said. This, he explains, will limit restaurant owners’ ability to cover costs with less occupancy due to social distancing. The number of employees may not return to levels before the epidemic either.

The researcher says that these questions indicate that people are “more risk averse” and that 70% of Americans support government safety restrictions. “Maybe the economy won’t really recover until people feel comfortable gathering together. This will require a vaccine that people can trust.”

Changes in spending

It also stresses that economic prospects could get worse if there was a second wave of COVID-19 infection this fall. Data from Earnest Research shows that customers spend more at grocery stores and significantly less at restaurants or entertainment venues.

The authors note that “there was also a decrease in non-food related shopping, travel and transportation, especially the decrease in gas purchases.” Hewings says that these small changes in spending can make a big difference in the recovery of those economic sectors.

Hewings says this is the first of many economic impact reports, as researchers will work with new information from the Illinois Department of Employment Security. This will include data on impacts on urban communities outside Chicago, broken down by province.

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