It is time for transformation and urban development to effectively combat disasters

There were disasters in every period of history. Since the time, location and nature of a disaster are unknown, they may have a much greater economic, social, physical and spiritual impact, especially if it occurs in densely populated areas.

The number of disasters has increased since the Industrial Revolution due to factors such as rapid population growth and unplanned urbanization. Its destructive effects have gradually increased.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as a result of natural disasters such as floods, droughts and earthquakes, an average of 90,000 people die and 160 million others are affected by these disasters around the world every year.

Drought killed 3 million people in 1930, 1.9 million in 1943, 1.5 million in 1960, and 450,000 in 1983, while floods killed 3.7 million people in 1931 and 2 million in 1959.

However, earthquakes have had the most devastating impact in recent years, resulting in nearly 227,000 deaths in 2004 and 226,000 in 2010.

Since 1900, there has been an increase in the number of disasters, while there has been a decrease in the number of victims thanks to the measures taken. However, economic losses are on the rise. In the short term, they have a major financial impact on local residents and insurance companies.

The reconstruction of devastated areas, which are considered to be within the scope of material effects, requires huge costs.

Financial losses from natural disasters reached $ 50 billion in 1980, according to German company MunichRe, one of the largest reinsurance companies in the world. However, financial losses increased dramatically with each passing year, and the total financial impact since 1980 was $ 5 trillion.

Countries and governments are beginning to do more and more to mitigate and prevent these devastating effects. However, despite all global measures, despite their declining number, the effects of disasters on these points have increased due to factors such as population and city growth. There was an increase in the affected population and financial losses.

What about Turkey?

Turkey is located in the earthquake zone in the Mediterranean – Himalayas, where the major fault lines in the world intersect, making it the second most earthquake-prone region in the world. Besides, we are a country that suffers from many natural disasters, such as floods and landslides, etc.

Unfortunately, population growth, rural-urban migration, and unplanned urbanization are some of the major issues that can increase the impacts of potential disasters.

Likewise, the occurrence of disasters in major cities increases the impact area and causes significant damage.

Our country has seen an increase in migration from villages to cities since the 1950s. In 1950, only 26% of the population lived in cities, but this rate today rose to 75%. The average population of county and district centers is 92.8%.

There are 22 cities with a population of over one million in our country, with a total population of 83 million as of the end of 2019. Of these cities, Istanbul represents about one fifth of the country’s population with 15 million people, and the Marmara region accounts for 30% of the population.

100,000 victims in 120 years

According to the Turkish Disaster Information Bank, nearly 50,000 disasters occurred in our country from 1900 to 2018, and a third of the landslides resulted in about 100,000 injuries and more than 60,000 injuries. In addition, 1,337,000 buildings were damaged and 108,000 other buildings were destroyed in the same period.

Of all of these, the most deadly and devastating impact was undoubtedly the result of a total of 3,368 earthquakes that occurred during this period.

The biggest loss in recent history was undoubtedly the Gulkuk (Marmara) earthquake, which occurred in 1999. There were 44,000 injuries in addition to 17,500 victims.

Looking at data for the past 60 years, the direct or indirect impact of disasters on our country’s economy amounts to 3% of GDP.

Total economic losses from natural disasters in the period 1980-2018 are estimated to be at least $ 26 billion.

The level of danger is high

Our country is among the countries with a “high risk level” with 5.0 points out of 10 points according to the 2020 INFORM Risk Management Index data, which includes 191 countries on a global scale.

In the risk and exposure category, which is one of the sub-headings, it ranks 10th among 191 countries with a score of 7.9 out of 10. Moreover, in terms of the possibility of an earthquake, which is the largest natural disaster, there is a very high risk of a major earthquake at 9.7 points, in While the risk of flooding is 5.7 points.

All these facts show that above all, major urban transformations and developments must be implemented, as well as robust, effective and periodic audits … It is not only about issuing building permits but also about checking changes to the structure at certain times. This is necessary at least in buildings that are over a certain age or have been built using old technology.

Well, what has been done about urban transformation and development in our country so far?

Studies after 1950

Yes, as is the case in almost all parts of the world, the urban transformation and development studies date back to the nineteenth century, when the Industrial Revolution occurred, but it started mainly after the 1950s. This is a period that was so devastating by two world wars in just 30 years. In the wake of world wars, in which 80 million to 90 million people lost their lives and the world was devastated so much, mankind went through development again.

The industrial revolution that had previously begun has moved to a new stage. Automation systems came into our lives. Industrial cities began to develop. Yes, the first steps were taken for urban transformation and development in our country in the 1950s. After the transition to multi-party life, there was an increase in rural-urban migration due to the development of industrial cities and the liberal economy.

At the time, only 26% of the population lived in cities. Due to expectations of a more comfortable life, better opportunities for work, health and education, rural displacement began. However, cities were unable to respond to these major migrations in their current state, and housing demands could not be adequately met due to a lack of housing stock.

As a result, people have developed their own solution and have come up with structures called slums. To combat this, the Slum Act was enacted.

During the same period, in the sixties, tall buildings entered our lives. For this reason, the Property Ownership Act has been enacted. This law paved the way for the construction of a large number of homes in the same building. So to speak, we started to see tall buildings in our country under this law.

In the 1980s, the government itself aimed to meet the need for housing. In this regard, the Department of Housing Development of Turkey (TOKI) was created. However, the results were not as expected, and only 43,000 homes could only be completed by 2002.

The millennium began with disasters

At the end of the 1990s, we had calamities after another, first in 1998, then in 1999. As the world prepared to enter the new millennium, in 2000, with great enthusiasm, we were in sackcloth and ashes.

The first news of the disaster came from the north of the Black Sea. The floods hit the region due to the famous rains in the region. Housing construction along rivers enhanced the impact of the flood.

In many provinces such as Bartin, Zonguldak and Karabuk, the flood affected more than 1.2 million people. The disaster, known as the flooding of the Western Black Sea, has caused 17 casualties and lost a billion dollars, according to the General Directorate of Government Hydraulic Works (DSI).

After only five weeks, bad news came from the south this time. An earthquake of magnitude 6.2 struck Adana on June 27, 1998, according to the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD). Unfortunately, the earthquake of this magnitude, which was not actually in the destroyed category, caused a lot of damage.

As a result of the earthquake, hundreds of people were injured, and 145 others died. The damage was not limited to this either.

Up to 61,000 homes and 3,700 workplaces were affected, with nearly 8,800 of them and 400 of them severely damaged, respectively.

After the earthquake in Ceyhan, Adana, we experienced the second largest earthquake after the Great Erzincan earthquake in 1939, which moved to history as the Marmara earthquake just months before 2000.

Earthquakes in Marmara

As a country, we experienced a lot of earthquakes. The Great Marmara earthquake was one of the first milestones of transformation at this point. First, the National Seismic Council was created. The Building Inspection Act was issued in 2001 to create an inspection system. It has been amended several times to improve the effectiveness of District Division Law No. 3194.

Earthquake resistant housing standards have been improved and regulations and guidelines have been updated. Earthquake tax started to collect resources. In the same period, the Turkish Natural Disaster Insurance Group (DASK) was also introduced, which is mandatory earthquake insurance to protect assets.

The period of transformation and development

Urban development and transformation were also highlighted during this period. Once again, the government took a step to take responsibility for housing and transformation. The importance of TOKI was again highlighted.

As part of “Planned Urbanization and Housing Production Mobilization” introduced in 2002, the TOKI effectiveness has been enhanced.

Between 2002 and 2011 alone, 500,000 homes were built and handed over to their owners.

For the first time, a “bill on urban renewal and development” was presented to Parliament in 2004.

Municipal Law No. 5393 and Municipal Capital Law No. 5216 were issued, and local governments were given the authority to implement urban transformation. However, these powers have not been used effectively.

Establishment of the Ministry of Urban Planning

In July 2011, the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning was created. The main objective was to develop urbanization and preserve environmental values.

Three months later, another disaster struck us. This time on the eastern side of the country. On October 23, 2011, there was a devastating earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 in Van. Unfortunately, we lost 604 people.

Later, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the good news that an urban transformation will take place in our country at the expense of losing power and that dangerous areas will be renewed. In the following period, Law No. 6306 “Transformation of areas at risk of disasters”, known to the public as the “Urban Renewal Law”, came into force, and it was declared as mobilization.

“Mobilizing urban renewal”

However, it did not prove to be as successful as intended, as there are many players involved in the transformation. On the one hand, the Ministry, on the other hand, is the local administration – the main focus of the issue. There are also real owners, rights holders, and contractors who would like to benefit from this work.

Progress has been limited as it has become an issue of money rather than an issue of safety and protection of property.

Here again, problems arose with hierarchy and bureaucracy, especially on the basis of local government. We have seen that local governments, one of the main players of urban transformation, have not focused enough on this issue. We concluded that the municipalities did not sufficiently embrace the case, and it remained indifferent.

However, this issue is a matter of life and death for our country, which is now a land of disaster. It is not an issue that can be overcome with today’s bailout policies. It is a supra-political issue, such as that of the environment.

It is an issue that could be a reason for her election in the future. Now, the era when the number of concerts and the number of constructed statues has ended, must end.

There is now a need for managers who prioritize the safety of citizens’ lives and property and provide them with comfortable and peaceful living spaces.

During this period, the Ministry took several initiatives, but the issue was underestimated due to the fact that local governments were subordinate to other ministries, and the effectiveness of the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning was limited, especially at the local government level.

Another factor is that TOKI, which carried out the urban transformation, was affiliated with the Prime Minister’s Office.

Strong Ministry of Urban Planning

These limited developments were also recognized by the will that brought a new age to the country. They have taken a step to resolve issues that prevent developments. After the introduction of the presidential government system in 2018, Toki and local governments became affiliated with the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning at the President’s will. This was undoubtedly a major step forward towards urban transformation and development.

The developments came one after the other. First, in September 2019, the Ministry publicly disclosed the “Urban Transformation Strategy Document and Plan” that it announced as a constitution for urban transformation.

Of the 6.7 million homes that need conversion, at least 1.5 million are urgent and expected to be completed by 2023.

So far, as part of the urban transformation mobilization announced in 2012, a total of 1,350,000 homes have been converted. In other words, an average of about 200,000 homes were converted on an annual basis.

The new goal is to convert 1.5 million homes, which are urgent, by the end of 2023, which marks the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic. In other words, an average of about 400,000 homes will be converted on an annual basis.

This will require more persistence, enthusiasm, diligence, more effective work, and joint action.

From crisis to danger

There is no doubt that our country has acquired many experiences and developed its infrastructure in the face of the myriad disasters it has gone through. Crisis Management is presented as a disaster response success.

While it was not possible to reach the disaster area for days during the floods and earthquake disasters that occurred in 1998-1999, we have seen that the state was present in disaster areas and mobilized all possible resources in a short time to reduce the impact of recent earthquakes in Van and Elazig and floods in Akcakoca, Duzce .

Now, we must transfer our experience gained from crisis management to risk management. We must conduct studies to prevent potential disasters, or areas or structures that may affect them, to prevent potential damage and minimize its negative effects in situations that cannot be prevented.

The world is moving in a different direction. The United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Sustainable city development is the 11th out of 17 agenda goals.

We have already included this in our development plans. We set it as a goal for ourselves. However, we do not see its implementation on the ground sufficiently. We feel that the local authorities, which are mainly responsible for the case, cannot bear sufficient responsibility.

In fact, according to some local media portals, urban renewal work has been planned in the Sürsürü district of Elazığ since 2017, but it has not been implemented due to some problems. Let’s note that we suffered many earthquake victims here as well.

In this case, our deans must now prioritize urban transformation and development, develop projects on this issue and invite the public to contribute to it.

Every 10 years, one major earthquake warns us of better preparation next time. When we were surprised by the 1999 earthquake, we felt as though we were coming to our senses. We improved construction standards and brought building supervision to the fore.

We took another step after the 2011 Van Quake. We started an urban renewal campaign. Let the 2020 Elazığ earthquake be a milestone and do not wait for another major earthquake.

Turkey turned

Our country must enter a period of transformation and development no later than tomorrow. It must work sincerely. Local governments, contractors, and citizens should not be concerned with money. On the contrary, they should focus on the safety of life and property.

Our goal is not only to replace the demolished building, which will be a transformation in the building rather than an urban transformation, but we have to adapt the entire area to today’s conditions.

By doing this, we must build structures and settlements according to our own architecture and culture, which is what our ministry aims at now. Indeed, cities are the living spaces that we place the highest importance on throughout history. They have become a symbol of our civilization and Anatolia is the home of the first settlements in history.

Earthquake preparedness does not involve promoting housing alone. Cities should be transformed rather than converted buildings alone. It should include issues such as transportation, communications and infrastructure.

The goal of transformation must be to do better in all aspects. First of all, endurance, and then efficient use of resources such as energy and water.

Transitions where renewables are used, smart systems come to the fore, and lifestyles like zero waste are placed at the center of life.

Solar panels can now be used on roofs. Our country has rich potential in solar energy. Buildings that produce their own energy, buildings that collect and evaluate rain water, buildings that use water resources efficiently while applying gray water.

In addition, periodic inspections and identification documents of buildings must be performed. Just issuing licenses should not be considered sufficient. Regular inspections must be performed to monitor the change in the structure at certain times.

Geography as much

While we enjoy the blessings, of course we must deal with adversity. However, this does not mean “we can accept what happens to us.” We must take steps to prevent potential harm and reduce its effects, and act accordingly.

Just as Japan, an earthquake-prone country, has learned how to cope with earthquakes and built cities accordingly, our country must develop itself to deal with all the other problems mentioned here. We have this ability as long as we want it, as long as we move with peace of mind and as long as we develop sustainable solutions that can be used for generations, rather than transformation solutions.

Let’s be part of the solution, not the problem.

* Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization of the Republic of Turkey, Senior Climate Change Envoy

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