Water can cause mysterious earthquakes and high landmass in Ishikawa

Over the course of a year, dozens of earthquakes shook the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture while crustal deformations persisted—and scientists still don’t know why this happened.

“We don’t have a clear idea of ​​why seismic activity and crustal motions persist,” said Naoshi Hirata, head of the government’s earthquake research committee, after a committee meeting in December. “Something we’ve never seen could happen.”

The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan said the land has continued to rise since around December 2020 in Suzu on the tip of the Noto Peninsula. At one site, the piled-up floor height reached about 3 centimeters.

The local meteorological office in Kanazawa said 69 earthquakes measuring at least 1 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 – the smallest category that can be felt by humans – struck the area between January and December 22 last year. One earthquake recorded a lower intensity of 5 on 16 September.

The number exceeds 3000 for all tremors of magnitude 1 or greater, regardless of whether they are felt or not.

A large earthquake is usually followed by a series of aftershocks, which occur less frequently over time, said Takuya Nishimura, associate professor of geodesy at the Earthquake Prediction Research Center of Kyoto University’s Disaster Prevention Research Institute.

“But (the earthquakes in Noto) last a long time,” he said. “The only way to explain this is to assume that certain forces continue to apply beneath the surface.”

So what is going on underground?

Joint GPS monitoring by Kyoto University and Kanazawa University showed that the Earth’s crust has bulged 10-15 km below the seismic source zones since the onset of crustal deformation. This indicates that something has collected there in large quantities.

Nishimura said he thinks “something” is water.

The likely source of the water is the oceanic tectonic plate, which moves from under the Pacific Ocean and descends toward greater depths under the Japanese archipelago.

Sea water enters the cracks of rocks when the tectonic plate is part of the sea floor. The plate also contains the water of crystallization structurally embedded in the minerals.

When the tectonic plate sinks, it brings most of the water content deeper into the Earth’s interior.

For some unknown reason, part of the water may have broken off, Nishimura said, at a depth of about 250 kilometers and rising 10-20 kilometers below the surface.

Another example of “something” gathering under the surface is the magma chamber under a volcano. However, there are no volcanoes near the Noto Peninsula, so such a subterranean phenomenon is unlikely, Nishimura said.

Water flow has also been suggested as a possible cause of the Matsushiro earthquake, which began in August 1965 and lasted for five years in Nagano Prefecture.

Over 60,000 perceptible earthquakes occurred over the five years, the largest of which had a magnitude of 5.4.

It is believed that the water rose from greater depths and seeped into the shale, weakening it and causing earthquakes.

The swarm was also accompanied by the lifting of a one-meter-high mountain and a phenomenon called “water eruptions”, or the flow of water from the ground.

But no simple analogy seems to be working here.

The seismic sources of the Nagano swarm were less than 10 km away, while the earthquakes have deeper origins in the Noto swarm.

It is also unknown whether the Noto earthquakes can be attributed to the same mechanism operating in Nagano or to the redistribution of forces by water that is applied to the bedrock in the area.

“There are currently no indications that crustal deformation is heading toward an end,” Nishimura said. “Earthquakes are likely to continue to occur as long as crustal deformation continues, so we must remain prepared for more earthquakes.”

An earthquake under the Noto Peninsula recorded an intensity of less than 5 on the Japanese seismic scale 7 in Suzu, Ishikawa Prefecture, on September 16. The epicenter is X. (from the Japan Meteorological Agency website).

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