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ShakeAlert warnings give people time to protect themselves – but so far, few have done so
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(Conversation) My Facebook feed exploded shortly after noon on December 20, 2021, with news from friends and family in Northern California: “Big news!” The epicenter of the 6.2-magnitude earthquake they had just hit was on the coast near Petrolia.
However, many social media posts didn’t focus on the quake itself, but the alert was sent to cellphones seconds before — or, for some, just as the big shaking started.
The ShakeAlert system is a great technology, which took years to make. It has the potential to save tens of thousands of lives in areas of high intensity earthquakes by providing a warning of a few seconds – enough time for people to take basic safety precautions. While cool, ShakeAlert only saves lives if people understand what they should do when they receive such an alert – and they do.
I am part of a multidisciplinary group that includes psychologists like myself, other sociologists, natural hazard experts, seismologists, geophysicists, and communication and education professionals whose goal is to design earthquake preparedness and response systems that improve safe outcomes. Some of us work together to analyze video footage of various earthquakes posted on social media sites, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.
Videos during the earthquake centered in Petrolia are the first we’ve seen of what people do – or don’t do – when they receive a ShakeAlert-powered alert. The shots indicate we have more work to do.
Detection and warning of impending earthquakes
The ShakeAlert system relies on a massive network of seismic detectors distributed around the West Coast that capture the shaking of the initial earthquake.
For people close to the epicenter, the time it takes to process the data and send an alert could mean it arrived just right, or perhaps seconds after the big shaking started. Even this almost simultaneous notice is valuable, because it helps people realize what is happening, which is often not clear.
For those far from the epicenter, the alert may arrive seconds, or even tens of seconds, before a strong shaking. This is enough time to automatically shutdown or alter operations of major systems – for example, to slow or stop trains, control equipment involved in precision medical procedures, or electrical networks. It is also enough time to prepare mentally, as well as to take preventive measures that may save a life.
To increase your chances of getting out of a major earthquake alive and intact, most experts recommend in most cases — in California, Oregon, and Washington — that you “drop, cover, and wait,” or DCHO for short. The alert message that appears on your mobile phone reminds you what to do.
ShakeAlert is the only earthquake early warning system for the public in the US, launched in Oregon in March 2021, and in May expanded to the entire US West Coast. The system sends alerts through a group of delivery partners. For example, Google Android phones display alerts via their operating system. Depending on where people live, they can install alert apps – MyShake, QuakeAlert USA, or San Diego Emergency ShakeReadySD – on their smartphones. The FEMA system that sends emergency messages such as Amber Alerts also issues earthquake warnings.
Substantial previous research has helped shape the content that is conveyed in ShakeAlert-powered alerts, as well as the key messages that occur immediately after the alerts. Getting all of this right is critical, and work in progress is still in progress.
What people do before and during earthquakes
Until recently, researchers had to rely primarily on post-truth or “did you feel it?” interviews. Post-earthquake surveys to find out what people remember during an earthquake.
In the past several years, closed-circuit television footage has begun to reveal how people really respond to high-intensity vibration. These recordings are not distorted by individuals’ understandably imperfect memories of a chaotic and stressful event. Although people have often reported taking preventative measures such as “falling, covering, and waiting” during the earthquake, analyzes of CCTV footage to date show that DCHO is, to date, actually very rare.
However, there are some encouraging exceptions. For example, CCTV footage from the 7.2 magnitude earthquake in 2018 in Anchorage, Alaska, shows a teacher and students in a middle school classroom collectively representing DCHO on the spot and without errors.
Petroleum earthquake videos offer the first opportunity to see if ShakeAlert-enabled messaging will change people’s behavior before, during, and even after a major earthquake. So far, in the footage we’ve seen, people have noticed the alert but have done nothing significant to protect themselves.
In fact, no one in any of these videos from December 20 took the precaution of “falling, covering and hanging,” regardless of whether, when, or when they received an alert. Many people stayed put, showed the alert on their phones to others and watched excitedly as things swayed and smashed to the ground.
It was frozen in the face of an emergency
My colleagues and I hope that a better understanding of what people are actually doing during the Great Earth shaking will suggest ways to modify alerts so that they inspire people to take safer action. It’s quite a challenge because doing nothing when an earthquake starts seems to be very common.
A 2021 survey conducted in both Seattle and Sendai, Japan found that stop-and-go was the dominant response to significant ground shaking, even though it put people at risk of serious injury from falling or colliding with falling objects. There are several possible causes.
A big earthquake is a new experience for many people, and often they may simply not know what to do. In addition, there are potential barriers to implementing “fall, cover, and wait”. Age, disability, and high body mass can make falls to the ground and cover a problem, although there are comprehensive approaches to DCHO.
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Even when people know what to do in an emergency, evidence suggests that they may feel ashamed or embarrassed to take action. Classical social science research indicates how contagious it can be, in the face of a variety of emergencies, to do nothing, resulting in cascading paralysis of all present.
By falling, covering, and holding on to the right thing when you receive an alert, you may unleash similar protective measures in others near you, possibly saving them, as well as yourself, from injury or death. In this way, doing a DCHO when you get an alert – despite the potential for embarrassment – is actually a form of daily heroism.
This article has been republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.
Sources 2/ https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2022/01/shakealert-earthquake-warnings-offer-people-time-to-protect-themselves-but-so-far-few-have-actually-done-so.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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