The second wave of coronavirus – the second wave of coronavirus: What do we know today?

The level of coronavirus infection continues to increase

The “second wave” has stirred minds in France since the start of the exit from self-isolation on May 11th, and is also talking about a pandemic, a tsunami-like epidemic.

This is a brutal wave caused by an underwater volcanic eruption or an earthquake. In such cases, the second wave is often observed, which can be worse than the first wave. The same phenomenon from the second wave applies to earthquakes on Earth: the second shock is worse than the first.

In the military field, there is the concept of “second assault”, which also plays a decisive role. Everything looks as if the first wave is preparing for the decisive second wave. This has been observed in many natural and unnatural phenomena.

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In addition, epidemiology often talks of a second or even a third wave, describing successive epidemiological phenomena among the population. Every year, the first, second and sometimes third waves of seasonal flu are observed.

Perhaps the concept of “consecutive waves” became popular after the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which appeared as part of three consecutive waves. Of course, it is not worth comparing Covid-19 with this terrible epidemic, but conclusions can be drawn to better understand the current situation.

This historical epidemic did not originate in Spain, but (again) in Asia. The H1N1 virus that caused this has become a mixture of human and bird strains. Killed at least 20 million people worldwide, and perhaps twice that number. This epidemic had three stages.

The first stage or wave was not very dangerous and unfolded from April to August 1918. Moreover, it was very infectious and covered more than 50% of the army. But given the severity of the disease and the circumstances of the war, French newspapers practically did not write about it: they said that nothing serious had happened, it was just a flu.

But at the end of May 1918, Spain was already seriously affected by the epidemic, especially the Madrid region, and its economy experienced a great recession. At the time the concept of “Spanish flu” arose, and this is not true, as Spain was not its source more than any other European country (in Spain, most of the talk was about the virus, although other European countries suffered less, hardly mentioned that) .

In July 1918, the epidemic seemed to have begun to fade, but the course of the disease became more difficult (extremely serious and even fatal complications of the lungs were increasingly occurring). However, in France, there were few people concerned because everyone believed that the French were strong enough to deal with the epidemic.

At the end of August 1918, the epidemic gained strength again, very significantly, beginning in southwest and western France.

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Thus, in September 1918, the second wave of influenza began, which became a very serious blow. First of all, this was about young people (20-30 years), in whom pneumonia quickly became fatal after a few days: many people died because of it. A second and more terrible epidemic wave swiftly swept Africa and Latin America.

This time, all French newspapers have reported just the flu. Hospitals were crowded. They advised isolating patients, wearing a mask, and avoiding public meetings and closed spaces, where many people gathered at one time.

In late October – early November 1918, the epidemic slowed. At the beginning of December 1918, a slight increase was observed, followed by a further decrease.

However, in February-March 1919, the third wave, no less dangerous than the epidemic, began. All continents were covered, with a death toll of 6 million in India alone. Clinically, unusual symptoms are observed: hair loss. Then the catastrophic epidemic came, however, without end, leaving behind tens of millions of deaths, especially among the young.

To understand if the risk of the second wave is real, it is important to remember the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, which left a deep mark in the minds due to the high death rate, especially among young adults.

It was also distributed in three waves in the memory of epidemiologists, and some of them tend to convert it into other epidemics. However, influenza is a very unusual virus: it is a virus that contains RNA, like coronaviruses, but it has one big difference.

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The genome of the influenza virus is divided, that is, it contains eight different components. It is not resistant, can change easily and often. Each year its genome undergoes slight changes, but from time to time major changes occur, genetic breaks that cause epidemics (because the result is a “new virus” that people practically do not have immunity from us).

When the epidemic started in April 1918, the virus was very infectious, but not particularly dangerous. However, the pandemic picture changed dramatically in July and August 1918.

Of course, at that moment we had no biological way to understand what was happening with the virus, but scientists believe that in the summer of 1918 there was a dangerous mutation, a genetic gap. The population did not have antibodies against the new virus, and, accordingly, the immune system was unable to combat it. Older people have already been able to cope with a similar breed in the past, but the immunity of the younger generation did not have such experience. This explains the large number of second and third wave victims among young adults.

It is also important to take into account knowledge about SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which, like all coronaviruses, does not generally differ in fractional RNA. Their genome is completely stable and has a system to correct errors in cell replication. Moreover, it can develop, because it has some plasticity.

It is worth noting that several small mutations have occurred since the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, and there are three different strains present. But these mutations have nothing to do with the genetic breakdowns that occur periodically for influenza A virus, as it was in the summer of 1918. For this reason, fears of a second wave seem catastrophic, as was the case with the 1918 flu pandemic unjustified.

In addition, scientists believe that a large portion of the population is immune to Covid-19, which arose even before the outbreak of the disease due to its proximity to coronaviruses that cause rhinitis, nasopharyngitis and a number of acute viral gastroenteritis.

Today it is believed that the immunity from Covid-19 is closely present. However, due to the lack of a comprehensive population test, it is impossible to determine the number of people infected with the virus without the appearance of severe symptoms and signs (in such cases, the person feels only a slight distress). If there were many of these people, who formed immunity, then this would contribute to the emergence of collective immunity, which should prevent the second wave.

Collective immunity is the decisive factor in the occurrence of the second wave. It can be said that in France, the procedures for self-isolation were weak, and the virus continued to spread. Of course, the slow spread of the virus strengthens collective immunity.

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I can say that the danger of the second wave is real, but there are more arguments against it.

Epidemiology succeeds in each other but does not resemble one another. Covid-19 is similar to the plague, cholera, typhoid, smallpox, polio and meningitis. Despite all the gaps in this approach, Covid-19 is the closest to the flu.

The influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 killed many, but it ended in April – May 1919, although at that time there was no vaccine, no effective antiviral drug, nor antibiotic (against a secondary bacterial infection).

Hygiene was just beginning to evolve, and the drug was not very effective. In addition, World War I led to the death and impoverishment of the population. But even in such adverse circumstances, the epidemic stopped, without any special methods being used.

By reading archival data on this epidemic in the early twentieth century, you realize that people’s reactions and behavior have not changed much. Surprisingly, many of the mistakes of those times were repeated today.

In other words, conclusions can be drawn from past epidemics, but for this, you need to make real efforts, which do not always happen because the experience of ancestors does not constitute evidence for many people. But whatever the results, the control plan must be adapted to each epidemic. That is, the vaccine is the only real solution.

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