Can you expect an earthquake? No, but the early warning system is approaching

This past December 20, Melt Fegley was sitting at his desk in his home in Eureka, California, when his phone started ringing.

“Emergency alert. Earthquake detected! Fall, cover, wait. Protect yourself,” he said on his phone.

A few seconds later, his house shook when a 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck Humboldt and Trinity counties.

Between the phone alert and the earthquake, the 70-year-old former city planner shouted to his family, who were able to safely prepare for the impact.

The recording took a split second, but I was able to scream ‘Earthquake! earthquake! Phegley told Deseret News.

Phegley was one of thousands of Californians who received an alert that day, which was the largest test yet of the US Geological Survey’s relatively new ShakeAlert technology.

“It worked just as it should,” said Robert de Groot, ShakeAlert coordinator with the USGS.

“This gave us a really fun opportunity to practice the system and learn from what happened. This event was distinguished by the fact that we had a few years to allow the system to mature,” he said.

Now, the technology could be coming to Utah.

Will ShakeAlert work in Utah?

On Friday, state Senator Jani Iwamoto, D-Salt Lake City, joined Bill Keach, of the Utah Geological Survey, Keith Cooper, of the University of Utah Seismic Center, and Ari Browning with Envision Utah, in a presentation to Utah lawmakers. Their goal is to get $150,000 to start a study that will explore the feasibility of an earthquake early warning system in Utah.

“We can’t predict earthquakes. We don’t know when that will happen,” Cooper said. “But this earthquake early warning system, this new technology is the best thing out there.”

A statue of Angel Moroni stands atop the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints’ Salt Lake Temple with its horn lost after a 5.7 magnitude earthquake in Magna struck Wednesday, March 18, 2020. Spencer Hibbs, Deseret News

In March 2020, a 5.7-magnitude earthquake shook the Wasatch facade, shaking mobile homes from their foundations, removing bricks from old buildings, and sounding Angel Moroni’s golden trumpet as it flew over the Salt Lake Temple of Jesus Christ. Latter-day Saints.

But it wasn’t the “big earthquake,” what scientists call the looming, magnitude-6 earthquake that could upend life along the Wasatch Front in years to come. Bruening says there is a 43% chance that an earthquake of magnitude 6.75 or greater will occur sometime in the next 50 years.

If that happens today, Envision Utah’s forecast is bleak. The group says it could result in between 2,500 to 3,000 deaths, making it one of the deadliest disasters in US history. Short-term economic losses for the state could reach $33 billion. The four main channels that bring water to much of the Wasatch front could be offline for several months. The long-term economic impact is immeasurable, with the potential for mass population displacement due to water and infrastructure issues.

On Thursday, the Utah Seismic Safety Commission approved a five-step plan, drafted in part by Envision Utah, that recommends the state take several disaster-resistance steps — to strengthen the Wasatch Front’s major waterways, identify Utah schools that need improvement, and increase public awareness of the buildings Unsupported construction and ensuring proper building code enforcement for large public buildings.

The fifth recommendation is to study the earthquake early warning system.

Some form of earthquake early warning system has been around for years — Japan first implemented one in 2007, according to the Los Angeles Times, and in Mexico City, a network of sirens alerts residents seconds before the earth begins to move.

In 2018, the ShakeAlert system was implemented in California, Oregon, and Washington, and the USGS has been working to improve it since then. Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley have developed the MyShake app, which notifies the public faster than a wireless emergency alert system. The app was initially rolled out in California and Oregon, and on Thursday the app became available to residents of Washington.

We’re still working on improving it,” de Groot said. “And that is going to happen for a long time. We have a really complex system to keep improving.”

Whether it will be as effective in Utah as it is along the West Coast will be determined in a feasibility study. Utah is located in an extension zone, which means the faults disintegrate. This is different from the slip and subduction zones found in California, Oregon, and Washington.

The feasibility study will also explore the various government agencies, utilities, and private organizations that need to coordinate for the ShakeAlert system to operate in Utah.

“Something is better than nothing”

It may sound complicated, but the idea is basically simple: when the ground begins to move, residents receive an alert.

Complications come with the technological infrastructure needed, within seconds, to address the earthquake and notify millions of people, facilities and government institutions.

Sensors in the field detect the initial ground motion from the earthquake, and pass that information back to the processing center. With lightning speed, the estimated location, magnitude, and intensity of vibration are calculated, and the USGS issues a ShakeAlert message.

The message is then picked up by facilities, hospitals, schools, etc. A message is also distributed by the Federal Emergency Alert System, such as the Amber Alert. It’s also possible that Google Alerts, TV, and Radio.

Andreas Groth Cordova, a graduate student at the University of Utah, works to collect data at the school’s seismic center in Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 28, 2022. Mingchen Lin, Desert News

Whether you receive an alert before, during, or after an earthquake entirely depends on the location. A person standing directly above the epicenter will likely receive an alert during or after.

The further away from the epicenter, the more time it will take for the tremors to reach you, which means you will have more advance notice.

If you are far enough away, the alert will likely come within a few seconds before the vibration starts. During the California earthquake in December, residents across Humboldt County had different experiences.

Some told the Deseret News via Facebook they got an alert five minutes after the quake — one of the men said he got it with enough time to go out with his dogs. Most said the alert came somewhere in between.

A few seconds doesn’t seem like much, but consider the room you’re in right now – it should probably be enough time to dive under a table. In Utah, knowing the “big guy” is just seconds away can save lives, especially for those who live in unreinforced stone buildings.

And experts say personalized phone alerts are only a small part of ShakeAlert’s capabilities. For major utilities, hospitals, public transportation, and government institutions, 10 seconds can be a big enough window to stop a potential disaster.

“That’s enough time to shut down the natural gas. That’s enough to stop the TRAX trains and FrontRunner trains and possibly prevent many more deaths and injuries,” Browning said.

Automation was the first part of the system to be implemented at scale — now, the Los Angeles Metro and Bay Area Rapid Transit system use ShakeAlert data to stop or slow their trains, and warn employees in office buildings and maintenance yards. Water municipalities in Oregon and Washington are receiving updates to close valves. Hospitals along the West Coast are using ShakeAlert to take preventative measures.

De Groot says there is no real cap on where ShakeAlert can be implemented.

“We focus on critical areas like transportation, utilities, healthcare, and educational environments like schools, and we want emergency managers to use them as well,” he said, noting that the USGS is expanding its efforts this year.

If an anecdotal public opinion poll conducted via Facebook on Friday meant anything, those in Humboldt County, California had nothing but good things to say about ShakeAlert. When asked if Utah should consider adopting it, Eureka resident Phegley didn’t utter words.

He said, “Oh, sure.” “I think at this point, technology won’t be much of a warning, but at least something is better than nothing.”

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