“Blot Echo Wind Map” predicts earthquakes

Phivolcs officials Renato Solidum Jr and UP geologists say the Blot Echo Wind Map is not backed by science

At a glance the claim: “Blot Echo Wind Map” predicts earthquakes. Rating: FALSET The Facts: The Blot Echo Wind Map is not backed by science, says Renato Solidum Jr., officer in charge of Phivolcs and the University of the Philippines (UP). Why we checked: The claim was submitted to Rappler via email for verification. One post with this claim identifying the Philippines has over 30,000 reactions, 2,900 comments, and 46,000 Facebook shares as of writing. full details

A series of Facebook posts published from January 23 to January 24 via the Watchmen’s Earth and Space Connect Facebook page claim to have used the “Blot Echo Wind Map” to predict earthquakes in several countries.

The page published a post on January 24 with the comment: “The entire Philippines is under earthquake monitoring. So you just need to stay alert. At the moment, most earthquakes have been in the water but I’m afraid they will start moving towards internal faults soon. It could be in anywhere in the Philippines.

Then on January 24, Page posted another blog post supposedly explaining what the “Blot Echo Wind Map” shows. The caption to the post has a line that reads, “Guys, when I say the Philippines is under earthquake watch, it doesn’t mean that the entire Philippines will experience major earthquakes. It means that within the next 72 hours there is a risk of 4.0 earthquakes or higher. All you can do is Stay alert. The more hits you get, the higher the chance of bigger shallow hits.”

The claim has been submitted to Rappler via email for verification. One post with the claim identifying the Philippines has over 30,000 reactions, 2,900 comments, and 46,000 shares on Facebook as of writing.

This claim is false.

Dr. Renato Solidum Jr., responsible for the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), told Rappler that using the Blot Echo Wind map to predict earthquakes is not supported by science.

“I have not found scientific articles using wind maps to predict seismic activity. Most destructive earthquakes are associated with the movement of active faults and trenches, sometimes due to strong volcanic earthquakes. The main driving forces for these processes will be the Earth’s internal heat and the movement of tectonic plates rather than its relationship with the wind.

Meanwhile, Dr. John Dale Dianala, a structural geologist and faculty member at the National Institute of Geological Sciences (UP-NIGS), explained to Rappler that using the Blot Echo Wind Map to predict earthquakes is pseudoscience at best and any kind. The correct prediction given by the maps is just coincidences.

“Any kind of ‘correct’ prediction based on these maps is serendipitous, thanks in part to the broad nature of the assessments. For example, on one of the maps I linked to, the entire Philippines appeared in red,” Dianala said, as a country with more than 20 earthquakes every day, we are bound to have an earthquake that matches their assumed expectations.

Raul Benjamin Mendoza, an outgoing faculty member at UP-NIGS and a graduate student in geophysics at the University of British Columbia, explained to Rappler that the app cited by “The Watchmen’s Earth and Space Connection” on their Facebook page contains reports on their website. It was not published by a prestigious journal, which means that it is not backed by science.

Both the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) have long asserted that earthquakes cannot be predicted.

Blot Echo Windmap co-founder Ben Davidson and his organizer Suspicious0bservers were validated by Climate Feedback in 2021 looking for a claim that said the planet was heading into an ice age.

Rappler has debunked the claims of earthquake predictions several times in the past. Here are Rappler’s other investigations of facts about earthquake predictions:

– Lorenz Dantes Passion / Rappler.com

Keep us informed of suspicious Facebook pages, groups, accounts, websites, articles or photos in your network by contacting us at [email protected]. Let’s fight misinformation once to check the facts.

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