This is how common slots (and holes in one) are located on a PGA Tour

By: Mark Brody February 12, 2022

Odds are that most of us have never made a magic strike or clash with an approach shot, but for some pros, these magical moments are remarkably familiar.

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What do the odds of piercing have in common with earthquakes and the number of lifelong sexual partners of the average Swede? Read on for the punch line.

At the US Open last year, at Tory Pines, Louis Oosthuizen needed a 69-yard shot hole punch from the fairway to force John Ram into a playoff. I wondered what his odds are? The history of professional golf is punctuated by many famous holes. Larry Mays netted from 45 yards to win the 1986 Masters. Four years later, Robert Jamies hit a 7-iron from 176 yards to capture the Arnold Palmer Invitational. For Greg Norman, who fell victim to these two shots, gaps must have seemed remarkably common. But how likely are they to get out of the fairway or a level 3 tee?

To come up with an answer, I looked at more than 15 million shots from 20 to 260 yards in the ShotLink database of the PGA Tour. Not surprisingly, the puncture odds increase with the distance of the shot. It’s the way these possibilities change that I find interesting. From 25 yards at fairway, the odds of a pro are about 100 to 1. From 50 yards, the odds swell to about 300 to 1. From 100 yards, the odds are closer to 900 to 1. (Of course, other factors influence the odds, But they average across all holes and conditions.)

See the pattern? Triple the distance and aperture odds. This relationship is called a power law because the effect on the probabilities is an exponential increase in the effect of distance.

A simple example is the area of ​​a square. Double the edge length and increase the area by 4 (2 to the power of 2). Another power law is the volume of the cube. Double the edge length and increase the size by a factor of 8 (2 to the power of 3). Both area and volume follow the laws of force, but each has a different force. The ShotLink data allowed me to estimate the “power” in the law of probability power. It makes it easy to see that the odds of a pro going out from 200 yards are about 2700 to 1. (The law breaks down when you start to go too far, as holes become pretty much impossible.)

Are round winners more likely to be elite ball strikers or short-match magicians? Written by: Mark Brody

Force laws apply across a range of fields, from finance and economics to biology and seismology. The probabilities of an earthquake occurring in a given area during a specified period of time follow the force law. If an area experiences 100 earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or greater per year, it will average 10 or more earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater. In this way, scientists use smaller earthquakes to estimate the odds of a “major earthquake”. A study of behavior in Sweden showed that the number of lifelong sexual partners followed power law, with 10 percent of men having had 25 (or more) lifelong sexual partners and 1 percent having 100. The data align with power law well, with 0.1 Percentage of men with 400 lifetime partners. Looks like Wilt Chamberlain wasn’t the only one.

But let’s get back to golf. As part of my research, I also thought it would be interesting to come up with an arrangement for the PGA Tour of the Slots. To do this, I could not count the number of holes each player had, as not all holes were created equal. Instead, I used a system that awards points according to the probabilities of the shot, such that a 25-yard aperture (100-to-1 odds) equals 100 points, while a 100-yard (at 900-yard-to-1) aperture equals 900 points and so on. (See chart above).

In case you were wondering, the longest hole of the tour is attributed to Aaron Badley, who fired a 336-yard shot in 2015. That thunderbolt hit earned him 8,490 points in my standings but nonetheless didn’t make him enter the top 10. Oosthuizen isn’t in the top ten either. The odds of the disharmony he fired at Tori a few months ago were about 500 to 1. A similar power law applies to weekend golfers. Just take the pro odds and multiply them by 5 – which means you would have had a 1 in 2500 chance if we were wearing Lewis’ shoes.

Bottom line: If you’re hoping for more holes, you’ll need to get lucky, or play more golf!

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