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A Ukrainian soldier stands next to a military vehicle on a road in Kramatosrk, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, after Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive. [AP]

Plate tectonics in history is shifting. No one knows the size, depth or duration of the earthquake caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday. What is certain is that our world is changing. We will either witness the strengthening of the system of world government and the decline of Russia (and the consequent loss of superpower status), or we will enter an era of absolute fluidity and danger, without laws and principles. February 24, 2022, dispel the illusion of collective understanding, whereby powerful nations maintain balance with each other, adhere to certain rules, and avoid confrontation even when they differ on important issues.

When a nuclear power and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council invades a neighboring country, with arguments aimed at persuading its own citizens more than the international community, this is a direct threat to the global system of governance and to the principles of behavior developed after World War II. The Russian president is well aware that his actions can open the gates of hell, issuing a direct threat that “anyone who might contemplate interfering from the outside … will face consequences greater than any I have ever faced in history. All relevant decisions have been made. I hope you hear me.” It is clear that after this statement, there is no return to the world we knew. Either the international community comes together and stops Vladimir Putin, or we enter a period of instability and barbarism, in which those who can bypass international law tread at the expense of the weak. The last time such conditions prevailed, they led Europe to 1939.

The past decades do not inspire optimism. The United States often sets a bad example through unilateral actions, authoritarian regimes have taken root in many countries, liberal democracy is under fire, and the United Nations has been weakened. But disaster is not a given. Putin faces two insurmountable hurdles: His country, with a population of 144 million and a GDP of $1.5 trillion, is not as powerful as he considers itself to be. The only superpower that could support it, China, has invested in stability and development. With the United States and the European Union conducting a united parade, with China looking after its own interests, Putin – though always a danger – will be on his own.




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