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Ukraine War: Worst-Scenario




When considering how fluid and how quickly the situation in Ukraine has become, the possibility of a worst-case scenario, or something approaching it, remains within the realms of reality and the possible. Predictive analysis is becoming increasingly unpredictable and burdensome.

If colder heads prevail, the situation may be contained and managed within the geographical borders of Ukraine. However, such brains seem to be currently in short supply, particularly among those responsible for spearheading developments on the ground in Ukraine. The possibility of spillover to the EU borders and neighboring regions and possibly beyond, leading to a wider conflict, cannot be ruled out.

Time is of the essence and necessity requires that the Western world, and all free societies globally, be prepared for all eventualities. With global security and stability on a knife edge, the simple cliché “hope for the best, prepare for the worst” dramatically downplays the seriousness of what’s at stake.

In the present circumstances, active and responsible leadership remains indispensable. At this point, there is still debate as to whether a sufficient level actually exists. Crises often bring out the best or worst qualities in leaders and individuals that may challenge current expectations.

The coming days and weeks may bring more uncertainty, but the relative peace and prosperity of recent decades is surely over. It is now safe to say that the world is officially going through an age of insecure great power competition, with all the attendant risks.

Although parallels with previous historical eras can be drawn, the bottom line is that we are entering an undefined, and even more dangerous, territory—particularly when considering rapidly developing technological innovations and their applications in contemporary warfare.

Marco Vicenzino is the Global Strategy Project Manager.




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