The question is not “when will the earthquake strike?” But “will we be ready?”

*Photo: Mehmet Emin Minguarslan – AA (Izmir earthquake / October 2020)

Click to read the article in Turkish

On the occasion of Earthquake Week from March 1-7, a press conference was held yesterday (March 3) at the Kandilli Observatory of Bogazici University and the Seismological Research Institute of Istanbul. Current data on earthquakes in Turkey was shared at the conference.

While it was noted that half of the seismic energy off the Tekirdag-Silivri coast in northwestern Turkey has dissipated, it was also emphasized that what should be focused on is not the time of the earthquake, but the potential damage it will do. .

It was also emphasized that there is a need for a recent study on the damage that a major earthquake may cause in Istanbul.

Professor Haluk Ozner, who provided an overview of seismic and earthquake movements in Turkey, said that 1,470 earthquakes of magnitude 7 occurred in the world between 1900-2021 and more than two million people lost their lives in these earthquakes.

It may not be a harbinger of a major earthquake

Professor Osner also noted that in the geographical region in which Turkey is located, 11,302 earthquakes of magnitude 4 occurred by the end of 2021.

“Earthquakes are not surprising, this geography is very active. An earthquake of magnitude 3 to 3.9 occurs almost every day,” the director of the institute said, noting that “the increase in the number of earthquakes may not be a harbinger of a major earthquake.”

Ozner added that they know very well the characteristics of the fault lines in the Marmara region in northwestern Turkey:

“There are two unfractured parts of the North Anatolian Fault Line; energy keeps accumulating there. The more energy accumulated there, we expect the earthquake to be more destructive. And there are earthquake stations we have set up in the Marmara Sea. We immediately hear the heart of Marmara, and we can follow very small earthquakes.” “.

“Half of the seismic energy has disappeared.”

Professor Ali Pinar, Deputy Director of the Institute, also shared some information about the earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara Sea:

According to the data we obtained thanks to the opening measurements, half of the seismic energy has been eliminated on the rib off the Tekirdag-Silivri coast. And while a 20mm energy buildup was usually expected there, only 10mm did, which is a positive finding. These measurements are also a bit more the case in the eastern Marmara region and we hope to get a similar result from there as well.

Information pollution

Assistant. Professor Dogan Calafat, Director of the Regional Earthquake – Tsunami Monitoring and Assessment Center emphasized that there is unnecessary information pollution in the press about earthquakes:

“Everyone may make some predictions about earthquakes based on some data, but it cannot be taken as evidence that an earthquake will happen. What we kindly ask from the press is that they do not attribute much to such news and do not cause people to panic.”

“After almost every earthquake of magnitude 4 or higher, rumors of a ‘big and imminent earthquake’ started to spread. The Marmara Sea is a very active region due to the fault line along its bottom, and it is very normal for earthquakes to occur constantly there for this reason.

“Of course, the accumulated energy must not be ignored and measures must not be abandoned. What is important is not the question ‘When will the earthquake happen?’ ‘, but ‘will we be ready?’ (AÖ/SD)

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