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A 3-meter-high tsunami could hit the Turkish coast, experts warn

A 3-meter-high tsunami could hit the Turkish coast, experts warn


Tsunamis are rare for Turkey, a country that is used to big earthquakes. But the danger here, experts warn, is quite natural for a landlocked country surrounded by seas. Associate Professor Dogan Calafat said waves of up to 3 meters (9 feet) are expected in the event of a tsunami. Calafat heads the Center for Seismic and Tsunami Monitoring at the Kandilli Observatory of Bogazici University and the Earthquake Research Institute, a leading research body in the earthquake-prone country.

The tsunami phenomenon first found widespread awareness in Turkey after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the subsequent 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan. As these two disasters have shown, tsunamis seem to be more common in the oceans, but this is not the case all the time, as Turkey itself experienced in 2020 in the Turkish province of Izmir in the Aegean. The disaster, the deadliest in recent memory for the province and Turkey, caused a tsunami off the coast of Seferihisar district, the epicenter. Although Seferihisar survived the deaths, small tsunami waves washed away the city, forcing people to flee in panic and ripping apart anything near the coast.

A tsunami monitoring center was established in the wake of the Indian Ocean earthquake and about five years after the major earthquake that struck northwest Turkey, including parts of Istanbul where the center is located. Istanbul remains at risk similar to the 1999 earthquake that killed hundreds in Avcilar, a region on the European side, located between the Sea of ​​Marmara and Lake Kucukcekmece. About 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the area, a tsunami early warning station was set up and monitored last year in Buyukcekmece, an area where a tsunami is likely to occur in the future.

Klavat said their current work focuses on the eastern Mediterranean where they monitor earthquake stations and underwater stations there measure water levels. He added that Turkey’s Aegean and Mediterranean regions are at greater risk. “The southwest coast, from the Greek (island) of Crete to the coasts of Mugla, Zhukova, Fethiye and Antalya is at risk of a three-meter tsunami.

“What we have in the Mediterranean is the arc of Crete, which is a region where the tectonic plate of Africa merges with the plate of the Aegean and Anatolia. Major earthquakes occur at the edges of these plates. Crete and the (other Greek) islands have suffered from tsunamis in the past” . In Marmara, experts expect a major tsunami after an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher. The probability of such a massive earthquake is high in the coming decades. Klavat warned that the sea level could rise by two metres, and even this would be “enough to cause damage.”

He added that Turkey has warning systems that can issue alerts up to seven minutes before a tsunami strikes. “This is an important period of time that can help people evacuate to safe areas,” he said. Although he urges caution, he notes that the tsunami in Turkey will not be as devastating as the one in the oceans.

He stressed, “People should know that in the event of an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or higher and its epicenter is under the sea, there is a risk of a tsunami. So, they should heed the warnings and go to higher ground.”

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